College football upset alert: Expert picks for Week 2 underdogs with the best odds to win
Who doesn't love a good underdog story? We certainly do here at Sporting News, bringing the Underdog Challenge back for year three. Each week, our panel of five experts chooses three against-the-spread underdogs we feel have a shot at defying the odds by winning outright.
If your underdog pulls off an outright win, you get as many points as your dog got on the spread. So, if your 14-point underdog shocks the world, you'll get 14 points. Lose by 35-plus? Nada. Fail to win outright but stay within the spread? Doesn't matter. As the late great Vince Lombardi said, "Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing."
Last season, Mike DeCourcy claimed the Underdog Challenge belt, cashing in on 14 outright upsets, good for 76.5 points. Bill Bender also picked 14 upsets but only tallied 51.5 points, as his underdogs weren't quite as hefty as DeCourcy's. Bill Trocchi also focused on rather big underdogs and amassed an impressive 72 points from just nine correct picks.
I wasn't a part of the challenge last season, but I watched from afar and took notes. Neither was Edward Sutelan, but that doesn't hinder our chances of making this the most competitive edition of the Underdog Challenge yet.
Can DeCourcy keep the belt, or will a new champion emerge?
Onto the upsets.
Mike DeCourcy, Senior writer
Tulane (+7.5) over Ole Miss
I still don’t have my rewards for winning this thing last season. No trophy, no prize money, nothing. I mean, it’s part of the paycheck, I suppose, but if they’re keeping score don’t you think I should have gotten something other than bragging rights for last year’s dominance? I mean, it is cool to brag to Trocchi and Bender. I’ll admit that. But I’d rather have cash.
Vanderbilt (+10) over Wake Forest
There are two reasons I was able to win this last year despite knowing demonstrably less about college football than my competitors: 1) I was damn lucky; 2) I did have a solid system. And what I know about my competition is that Trocchi is a Vandy grad, and he is not passing up the opportunity to possibly claim a double-digit win from his alma mater. So if he gets it, I’ll match those points. Just like in Fantasy Football!
Cincinnati (+7.5) over Pittsburgh
These are two programs I do know very well, having lived in the two cities for a combined 50 years and even covered some of their games along the way. Well, not lately. But still, I watch both of them every chance I get. I don’t think either program has a really good handle on how good they’ll become this season, each taking the field last week with a new starting quarterback against an overmatched FCS opponent. The Bearcats have a strong contingent of traveling fans, and there’ll be plenty of seats available at Acrisure Stadium, so I don’t believe Pitt’s “homefield advantage” will bother them much.
Bill Trocchi, Senior editor
Tulane (+7.5) over Ole Miss
The narrative before the season was Tulane would come back to Earth after its Cotton Bowl season with star running back Tyjae Spears off to the NFL. Someone might have forgotten to tell the Green Wave. QB Michael Pratt is back and is rated No. 1 in passer rating after a Week 1 win over a good South Alabama team. New Orleans will be hopping to host an SEC team for the first time since 2010.
Sam Houston State (+13.5) over Air Force
Sam Houston State is going to be undervalued early on as a newcomer to FBS, but the team redshirted a lot of front-line players last year in order to prepare for this season. It lost 14-0 to BYU in Week 1 as a 19-point underdog. Who’s to say it can’t pull the upset in Week 2?
Arizona State (+3) over Oklahoma State
This is the week of the home dog. Arizona State is my third selection as new coach Kenny Dillingham plays the Us-Against-The-World card after the bowl ban (although it should be Us-Against-Us since it was self-imposed). The Sun Devils had a bumpy debut in Week 0, but Oklahoma State seems to be trending in the wrong direction as a program. Jaden Rashada makes progress during the off week and the Devils get the upset in the desert.
Bill Bender, Lead college football writer
Iowa State (+3.5) over Iowa
Betting on Iowa-Iowa State games is always a roll of the dice, but the Hawkeyes' offense didn't look great in the opener. Cade McNamara completed 56.7% of his passes. Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht was more efficient at 76.9%. The last five meetings have been decided by 10 points or less, and Iowa State won 10-7 last year. As always, expect the unexpected with this in-state rivalry. We'll take the Cyclones at home by a field goal.
UAB (+7.5) over Georgia Southern
Trent Dilfer's debut went under the radar, but his work with Baylor transfer quarterback Jacob Zeno — who completed 38 of 41 passes for 291 yards and three TDs last week — will get more attention. Yeah, Georgia Southern is a year ahead with Clay Helton, but the Blazers have enough talent to keep up. That spread is too high. Former Alabama linebacker Jackson Britton - who had 11 tackles and two sacks last week — is another difference-maker to keep an eye on.
Arizona State (+3) over Oklahoma State
This is a risky pick knowing the Cowboys are 9-2 against Pac-12 schools under Mike Gundy. It's a road game, though, and the Sun Devils had extra time after squeezing out a 24-21 victory against Southern Utah. Oklahoma State isn't the offensive force of past seasons, and the Sun Devils will continue to improve with first-year coach Kenny Dillingham and freshman quarterback Jaden Rashada. They'll build on that with a small upset here.
Edward Sutelan, Digital content producer
Washington State (+6) over Wisconsin
A year ago, Wisconsin beat Washington State in everything but the scoreboard, out-gaining the Cougars 401-253 in total yards yet losing 17-14. This year, Wisconsin is hyped up in the first year of the Luke Fickell era, with some expecting College Football Playoff contention from the Badgers. But heading to Pullman in Week 2 is going to be a huge challenge, particularly a week after the passing game in Wisconsin looked a little suspect against Buffalo.
Cameron Ward carved up Colorado State in Week 1, and the defense bottled up a decent Rams running game, keeping Avery Morrow to 29 yards on 11 carries. If Washington State can contain Chez Mullusi and Braelon Allen enough to force Tanner Mordecai to carry the Badgers late, that should give an advantage to the Cougars and a passing offense with more continuity.
Texas (+7) over Alabama
Is Texas back? This is the first early answer to that question. All the stars are aligning for the Longhorns. They have the more experienced quarterback and receiving corps, led by Quinn Ewers, Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell. But this Texas defense is what is really going to carry the day for Texas. The defensive line has some weapons in T'Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy, but the secondary of Jalen Catalon, Jahdae Barron, Terrance Brooks and Ryan Watts should cause some huge problems for an inexperienced quarterback in Jalen Milroe and an underwhelming array of weapons.
It's always dangerous to bet against Nick Saban, particularly in Tuscaloosa, but beating Alabama feels like the perfect opportunity for Ewers to establish himself among the game's best quarterbacks and for Texas to officially say it's back.
Tulane (+7.5) over Ole Miss
Quietly one of the biggest games of the weekend, the Rebels vs. the Green Wave has the chance to be a thrilling contest between two exciting offenses. Both quarterbacks Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss) and Michael Pratt (Tulane) posted gaudy passing numbers in Week 1, each throwing for four touchdowns, with Dart going for 334 yards and Pratt going an impressive 14-for-15 for 294. Tulane had the tougher challenge in Week 1, having beaten South Alabama 37-17 while Ole Miss had a much easier clash against Mercer. The better-tested team at home with the edge in quarterback feels like a good way to pick what should be a close game on Saturday.
Nick Musial, Content producer
Texas State (+13.5) over UTSA
What G.J. Kinne's bunch did to Baylor was no fluke. Putting up 42 points on 441 total yards proves that Auburn transfer TJ Finley has a strong grasp of the scheme. UTSA sure didn't look like a team that's won a combined 23 games over the past two seasons in its opener against Houston. QB Frank Harris completed just 50 percent of his passes (18-of-36) with a rather alarming turnover-worthy play rate of seven percent. Texas State's ability to put scoreboard pressure on UTSA could lead to a shocking result inside the Alamodome.
Miami (+4) over Texas A&M
Yes, A&M's offense looked the part with Bobby Petrino calling plays, but New Mexico isn't Miami. We'll see how crisp Conner Weigman looks against a more competent Hurricane defense in Week 2. While I do think A&M is on the up and up, Miami's a live dog in this one. The 'Canes could have easily notched a road win in last season's meeting in College Station, outgaining A&M 392-264, but an injury to go-to wideout Xavier Restrepo derailed Miami's chances of leaving Kyle Field with a "W". If Miami sees some positive turnover and red-zone variance in this one, Mario Cristobal's Hurricanes could get to 2-0.
New Mexico State (+10) over Liberty
I'm being rather ambitious going with two double-digit dogs to win outright, but if there's a time to take some calculated risks, Week 2's the time. The betting market isn't as sharp as it'll be as the season progresses, so why not back Jerry Kill's Aggies to replicate what they did to Liberty in 2022? The Aggies walloped the Flames, 49-14, with QB Diego Pavia totaling six TDs (three passing, three rushing). A 10-point spread feels lofty, as I think there's a chance this game closes closer to +7. Give us the Aggies to hand Liberty head coach Jamey Chadwell an "L" in his first C-USA contest.
