College football upset alert: Expert picks for Week 11 underdogs with the best odds to win
Another pair of Big 12 underdogs (Oklahoma State and Kansas) came through for our panel for a second consecutive week, giving Sutelan (+6), Trocchi (+6), and Bender (+2.5) a much-needed boost in the Underdog Challenge standings. Even with three weeks remaining in the regular season, it's anyone's guess as to which of our experts will hoist up the Underdog Challenge belt at the conclusion of rivalry week.
DeCourcy is still holding strong atop the standings with 48.5 points, but he's not satisfied with his point total and knows he needs a late-season push to repeat as the top dog. I had a brutal Week 10, with my underdogs not even sniffing a cover, let alone entering upset territory. That said, I've put a pitiful Week 10 behind me and am ready to finish the season out on a high note.
Sutelan is sneaking back up the leaderboard and is only 11 points behind DeCourcy. Bender's hitting his underdog picks at a high clip over the past few weeks, as he's not yet out of the equation. Trocchi really needed Virginia (+18.5) to take down Miami back in Week 9, but if he can predict some monumental late-season upsets, he'd be right back in the thick of things too.
As a reminder of how the Underdog Challenge works, our experts pick three underdogs to win outright (not just cover the spread). They then earn points equal to the number of points those teams got on the spread if their upsets come to fruition.
Onto the upsets.
Mike DeCourcy, Senior writer
Duke (+13.5) over North Carolina
Here we go with the latest edition of the greatest rivalry in all of American sports … No, sorry. That’s the other sport they play in the ACC, the one that really matters in the state. The schools still don’t like each other, but they’re just not as good at football as hoops. But is Duke two touchdowns as "not good" as Carolina? Sorry, not buying that.
Kentucky (+10.5) over Alabama
We’ve been waiting all year for the results to catch up with the Crimson Tide’s overall performance. The Tide are 71st in total offense, 26th in total D. Does that sound like a championship contender to you? And yet they keep winning, often coming from behind to get there. Not this time.
Colorado (+10) over Arizona
Are we really finished with Coach Prime for 2023? We haven’t seen a sports moment that hot cool so quickly since Linsanity briefly energized the New York Knicks fan base a decade ago. Deion Sanders has the advantage of not needing to avoid injury to do his job, which ultimately stopped Jeremy Lin in New York, but he does have to win games. If he can’t get this one at home, it may be time to start looking at 2024.
Bill Trocchi, Senior editor
Georgia Tech (+14.5) over Clemson
Brent Key has pulled off eight upsets in 12 opportunities since taking over Georgia Tech last year. Have I taken Georgia Tech once in this contest during that time? Of course not. But no one fools Bill Trocchi nine times! As far as analysis, Clemson’s offense is still broken (285 yards, 2 TOs vs. ND) while Georgia Tech has put up 40 points two weeks in a row.
Old Dominion (+13.5) over Liberty
Theory - it is really hard to go undefeated. We see these type of November upsets, where a team is just trying to get to the finish line with no losses and gets tripped up by a lesser team. ODU is 4-5, but has played its last eight opponents to one score. Maybe the one-score game goes in their favor against the Flames.
West Virginia (+11.5) over Oklahoma
Let’s just keep piling on the Sooners. OU beat UCF by 2, lost to Kansas and lost to Oklahoma State. Not a great three-week stretch, and up next is the surprise team of the Big 12 in West Virginia. I brilliantly suggested Neal Brown would be the first coach fired (which technically he still could be since there hasn’t been a firing yet), but WVU is 6-3 and coming off a 30-point win over BYU. Rolling with the Mountaineers.
Bill Bender, Lead college football writer
Appalachian State (+2) over Georgia State
These Sun Belt teams are trending in opposite directions. The Mountaineers have won two in a row, and quarterback Joey Aguilar averages 310 passing yards per game the last two weeks. The Panthers are on a two-game skid. Appalachian State is 9-0 S/U in the series.
BYU (+8) over Iowa State
The Cougars have been blown out each of the last two weeks, but those were road games. BYU is 2-0 S/U at home against new Big 12 opponents, and Iowa State is coming off a loss and is .500 on the road this season. This spread should be much lower.
Northwestern (+10) over Wisconsin
The Badgers are 1-3 S/U in their last four games, and they average 13.8 points per game in that stretch. The Wildcats are coming off a 10-7 loss to Iowa, but David Braun has made a case to be the full-time coach. Double-digit spreads in Big Ten West games these days seem like too much, especially in a game Northwestern could take outright.
Edward Sutelan, Digital content producer
Texas Tech (+3.5) over Kansas
Kansas just keeps shocking the college football world, with wins over Oklahoma and Iowa State in back-to-back weeks. But the Jayhawks have struggled against the run at times, and Tahj Brooks has been on an impressive run this season. This could be where the air comes out of the balloon a bit for Kansas.
Utah (+9.5) over Washington
This feels like a dangerous pick. Utah struggles more to defend the pass than it does the ground game, and the Huskies put together their best all-around offensive effort last weekend against the Trojans. But Washington has also been taken to the brink in five straight tight Pac-12 games and has come out on top in all of them. Utah, fresh off back-to-back lopsided games (one a loss, the other a win), could be well positioned to finally hand Washington its first loss of the year.
Georgia Tech (+14.5) over Clemson
I've been doing alright in the wins column, but to catch up, I need points. So for my second two-score upset of the week, I'm taking the Yellow Jackets. The Tigers are riding high after an impressive win over Notre Dame, but this is still a streaky Clemson team that has largely had to rely on turnovers to pull off wins this season. Haynes King is playing some of his best football, with a 76.7 percent completion percentage and just one pick over the past two weeks. If he can avoid making mistakes, Georgia Tech could play well enough to prompt a follow-up call from Tyler from Spartanburg.
Nick Musial, Content producer
Temple (+7) over South Florida
E.J. Warner's return in Week 10 helped the Owls take down Navy 32-18, winning outright as 6.5-point underdogs despite ending the game minus-four in turnover margin. Warner's ability to torch the Bulls secondary leads to a second straight outright win as underdogs for Temple.
Colorado (+10) over Arizona
I applaud Jedd Fisch for what he's done in Tuscon, but Arizona's reached its peak price in the betting market. We're hopeful Colorado's second-half surge last week propels them to a 60-minute effort on Saturday, helping keep Coach Prime's bunch in the bowl conversation.
USC (+15.5) over Oregon
Let's take a shot at Lincoln Riley's crew shocking the world in Eugene at +15.5. USC's at their low point in the betting market, as we know his offense can keep up with the Ducks. Saturday night's game comes to USC's new-look defense bending but not breaking -- something they've been unable to do all season. A few key stops in the red zone to hold Oregon to field goal attempts or fourth down play calls and a positive turnover margin could result in the Ducks catching their second "L" of the season.
