College football Week 4 predictions, picks against spread

College football and college basketball have traveled different paths for decades.

Football has the most high-stakes regular season in American sports. Basketball has the greatest postseason ever created. Football is dominated by a handful of programs. Basketball is for any team with a dream.

In the past four seasons, five programs have made multiple appearances in the College Football Playoff. In the past four seasons, no team has made the Final Four more than once, including this past season, which featured three first-time participants and a fourth-seed that went on to win the national title.

Basketball prospects only need to be 19 to enter the NBA draft and have attractive alternatives to the NCAA, preventing championship windows from extending more than a year or two. That has created wide-open NCAA Tournaments and has produced seasons with a slew of very good teams, but ones which will not be remembered by anyone but their fan bases.

Football has been defined by greatness. Its prospects aren’t eligible for the NFL draft until they are at least three years removed from high school. That has allowed four of the past five national champions to go undefeated. 

This season is different. There is no juggernaut. There may be more realistic title contenders than during any time in the past 15 years. 

An uninspiring offense led by a new quarterback and offensive coordinator has put the three-peat bid of No. 1 Georgia —which trailed 14-3 at halftime against unranked South Carolina at home last week — in danger. No. 2 Michigan, which struggled early against Bowling Green, shares offensive concerns. Texas and Florida State, the No. 3 and No. 4 teams, survived near-upsets last week as long-dormant powers still adjusting to title expectations. Alabama is on pace for its worst season under Nick Saban since his first (2007) in Tuscaloosa. The Pac-12 has five teams ranked in the top 14 and eight in the top 25, so its contenders will likely cannibalize each other.

There is also No. 9 Notre Dame — the former gold standard turned frequent bridesmaid — with another path back to the playoff. Its greatest hurdle comes Saturday against No. 6 Ohio State.

As usual, the Buckeyes have more talent. They have the best player on the field, Marvin Harrison Jr. They are coming off their best performance of the season and returning many of the players who beat the Fighting Irish, 21-10, last season.

But that matchup came in the first game of Marcus Freeman’s first season as head coach. It came before Audric Estime, who is now averaging 8.3 yards per carry, established himself as one of the nation’s best backs. It came without Sam Hartman, the veteran quarterback who has led Notre Dame to at least 40 points in each of the team’s four wins this season, all of which have been by at least 21 points. That game last year also was played in Columbus. 

In South Bend, Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord, who threw for no touchdowns and an interception at Indiana, will struggle under the brightest lights he has ever played under, as Notre Dame (+3) takes the inside track in the playoff race.

Rutgers (+24) over MICHIGAN

The Wolverines’ top-ranked defense could post a shutout, but their inability to top 35 points against three defenses ranked outside the top 99 bodes well for Rutgers’ sixth-ranked defensive unit. Jim Harbaugh’s first game back coaching Michigan comes against a coach who has kept lesser rosters within one possession of the national power in two of the past three years.

Florida State (-2.5) over CLEMSON

Their moment has arrived. The Seminoles can be excused for looking ahead to their heavyweight brawl against the team that has beaten them seven straight times.

Oklahoma (-14.5) over CINCINNATI

It is as if Lincoln Riley is back in Norman. The Sooners enter this weekend as the second-highest scoring team in the nation (55.7 points per game), with Dillon Gabriel completing over 82 percent of his passes.

Colorado (+20.5) over OREGON

If you don’t think Deion Sanders will be able to spin the loss of Travis Hunter and the disrespect of this spread, you haven’t been paying attention this season.

UTAH (-4.5) over UCLA

It would help if quarterback Cam Rising returns for Utah, but it won’t be the difference. The Utes haven’t lost at home in nearly three years and the Bruins haven’t beaten a ranked team on the road since 2019. The back-to-back Pac-12 champion Utes will avenge a 2022 road loss (as they did against Florida in Week 1), as UCLA freshman quarterback Dante Moore enters unfamiliar terrain.

ALABAMA (-7) over Mississippi

If you don’t think Nick Saban will be able to spin back-to-back lackluster showings and the Crimson Tide’s removal from the top 10, you haven’t been paying attention the past 14 seasons.

LSU (-17.5) over Arkansas

These meetings were decided by three points in each of the past three years. The best team in the SEC West is due to blow the doors off, following a road blowout in which the Tigers held the fourth-active leader in career passing yards (Will Rogers) to 103 yards with a 39.3 completion percentage.

WASHINGTON STATE (+3) over Oregon State

Shades of vintage DJ Uiagalelei returned last week, when the Beavers’ quarterback (formerly of Clemson) was intercepted twice by San Diego State. An implosion is imminent.

UAB (+42) over GEORGIA

Blazers coach Trent Dilfer has proven us wrong in the past. The Bulldogs’ unproven offense has prevented the champs from covering one spread this season.

Texas (-15.5) over BAYLOR

Naturally, the Longhorns exhaled after their win at Alabama. A trip to Waco won’t be taken lightly.

Iowa (+14.5) over PENN STATE

Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar’s struggles against a mediocre Illinois defense hints at trouble against one of the Big Ten’s best. The Hawkeyes won’t score much, but quarterback Cade McNamara won’t be intimidated, having thrown for three touchdowns and no interceptions while leading Michigan to victory at State College in 2021.

Betting on College Football?

ARIZONA STATE (+34.5) over USC

The Sun Devils deserve no respect after a 29-0 home loss to Fresno State, so the Trojans can start preparing for their trip next week to Colorado. That’s what I’m banking on.

California (+20.5) over WASHINGTON

It’s hard to make a case against the Huskies, who’ve won each of their three games by at least 33 points. It wasn’t much easier last year, when the Bears were beaten by a touchdown.

Best bets: Utah, Washington State, Iowa
This season: 16-29 (1-8)
2014-22 record: 1,150-1,082-25