College football predictions: Picks, tips for Week 4

Week 4 of the 2023 college football season is here, and there are several exciting matchups on the horizon that could have College Football Playoff implications.

The Game of the Week features a pair of top 10-ranked teams in Ohio State and Notre Dame, and there are also some exciting SEC contests headlined by Ole Miss and Alabama and the Battle for the Boot between Arkansas and LSU.

We had an excellent Week 3 in which we went 5-1 picking the top college football matchups, and we’ll try and keep the momentum going with my best bets for Week 4.

(Lines from Caesars Sportsbook, official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com, as of Thursday, Sept. 21)

Game of the Week

No. 6 Ohio State at No. 9 Notre Dame

Line: Ohio State (-3, -155) at Notre Dame (+130), 55.5 O/U

Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Sept. 23 at 6:30 p.m. (NBC)

Analysis: Ohio State and Notre Dame are both undefeated having won each of their games by double digits, so it’s tough to say if their biggest strengths are their offenses or their defenses.

We’ll find out on Saturday, but I see both offenses coming out ready to shine, as Notre Dame quarterback Sam Hartman has been excellent and will need to keep slinging it with Ohio State’s offense looking dangerous as ever with Marvin Harrison Jr. and an elite cast of weapons.

While both defenses are also strong, I don’t see them being able to slow down the offenses enough to prevent this from becoming a shootout, which makes the over feel like the best bet in what should be a back-and-forth matchup.

The pick: OVER 55.5

SEC best bets

Arkansas at No. 12 LSU

Line: Arkansas (+17.5, +600) at LSU (-900), 55 O/U

Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Sept. 23 at 6 p.m. (ESPN)

Analysis: LSU’s offense made a statement last week in a blowout victory over Mississippi State, but they now face an Arkansas defense that has held them to under 20 points the past two seasons.

LSU should be able to score more than that this time around considering how strong Jayden Daniels and the Tigers passing attack looks, but Arkansas has moved the ball well so far this season with senior quarterback K.J. Jefferson leading the way.

Jefferson was out for last season’s defensive struggle against the Tigers, and while I don’t see the Razorbacks pulling the outright upset in Death Valley, they should be able to keep things close enough to cover the spread.

The pick: Arkansas +17.5

No. 15 Ole Miss at No. 13 Alabama

Line: Ole Miss (+6.5, +210) at Alabama (-260), 55.5 O/U

Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Sept. 23 at 2:30 p.m. (CBS)

Analysis: Ole Miss held their own against Alabama last season, and while they could do so again this time around, it’s tough to bet against a Nick Saban team with its back against the wall.

It’s been a rough start for the Crimson Tide considering that they lost by double digits to Texas and only put up 17 points last week against South Florida, but their defense still appears sound even though their quarterback situation is turning into a nightmare.

The Rebels have the clear advantage under center, as Jaxson Dart has performed well, but the Crimson Tide defense should be able to slow down Lane Kiffin’s attack enough to where I see value in the under, especially with the Crimson Tide offense in flux.

The pick: UNDER 55.5 points

Mississippi State at South Carolina

Line: Mississippi State (+6, +185) at South Carolina (-225), 48.5 O/U

Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Sept. 23 at 6:30 p.m. (SECN)

Analysis: Both Mississippi State and South Carolina are coming off losses to begin SEC play, but there was a key difference in each of their performances.

The difference was that South Carolina put up a strong fight against No. 1-ranked Georgia, whereas Mississippi State didn’t even come close to hanging with No. 12 LSU at home, so it’s pretty clear to me where both of these teams stand.

While the Bulldogs should perform much better this week despite being on the road, we see Spencer Rattler and the Gamecocks being able to win by a touchdown or more considering how well they competed against the nation’s best.

The pick: South Carolina -6

Other plays

No. 4 Florida State at Clemson

Line: Florida State (-2, -130) at Clemson (+110), 55 O/U

Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Sept. 23 at 11 a.m. (ABC)

Analysis: Some might be concerned about Florida State in this matchup considering that they barely beat Boston College last week, but I saw it as a classic case of a team looking ahead to a bigger game the following week.

The Seminoles were able to get the win thanks to Jordan Travis’ second half performance in which he shook off any injury concerns, and they appear to be ready for the challenge against a Clemson team that has had a firm grip on the ACC and hasn’t lost to Florida State since 2014.

The amount of elite talent that Travis and the Seminoles offense possess is undeniable, so this is their golden opportunity to take back control of the conference considering that the Tigers offense doesn’t look nearly as dangerous.

The pick: Florida State -2

Rutgers at No. 2 Michigan

Line: Rutgers (+24, +1250) at Michigan (-2800), 44 O/U

Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Sept. 23 at 11 a.m. (Big Ten Network)

Analysis: 3-0 Michigan has yet to cover a spread all season, as they’ve been heavily favored in every game, but this is the week we see them doing so even though they’re chalk favorites once again.

Rutgers is also undefeated, but they they’ve started 3-0 the past two seasons and ended up with losing records both years, so we’re not buying that that they’ll be able to keep things close with a true Big Ten power like Michigan.

Michigan’s offense has yet to unleash its full potential, and their defense hasn’t allowed more than seven points in a game this year to where laying the points at home feels safe.