College Football Week 6 Best Bets: Bet on Arizona State to take down Colorado
2RYDHB8 Arizona State running back Cameron Skattebo (4) runs against California during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Berkeley, Calif., Saturday, Sept. 30, 2023. (AP Photo/Jed Jacobsohn)
• Bet Arizona State moneyline (+152 Caesars) vs. Colorado: Arizona State matches up well with Colorado on both sides of the ball, particularly in the ground game.
• Get ahead of the game: PFF's Best Bets Tool uses PFF data to uncover the biggest edges in the betting market.
Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
We highlighted Louisiana to cover the spread against Minnesota in this piece last week, and while the Ragin' Cajuns had opportunities to do so, it ultimately ended in a push. Louisiana led by a touchdown multiple times, but their defense did not hold up in the second half and things got away from them a little before they scored with a few minutes left to land on the number.
This weekly college football betting preview is now +1.08 units over the course of the season for an 11.82% return on investment.
Colorado @ Arizona State
- Arizona moneyline (+152 Caesars)
Colorado enters this game on the back of two losses — against Oregon and USC — after just narrowly securing an overtime win against Colorado State. The Buffaloes' contest against USC was close toward the end, but the Trojans were never in any danger of losing the game, taking their foot off the gas up 48-21 with a minute to go in the third quarter.
Colorado faces another tough game here on the road against an Arizona State team that is better than its results suggest. The Arizona State quarterback carousel has had three stops this year, but their best option, Trenton Bourguet, came back against California last week and threw for 350 yards in a three-point loss, showing that he is a significant upgrade over Jaden Rashada and Drew Pyne.
Arizona State matches up well with Colorado on both sides of the ball. Their coverage unit is better than the raw numbers suggest when adjusting for the strength of the opponent. Although this is likely to be the Sun Devils' toughest test to date against a pass-heavy Colorado team, the threat of the run is not as big as it was against Oklahoma State or California earlier in the season.
This is also going to be the easiest defense Arizona State has faced in FBS play. Not only do they get their best quarterback on the field for it, but their run game — the real strength of their offense — should batter a Colorado unit that has been one of the 25 worst teams in the country against the run.
- Over 59 (-110 generally available)
San Jose State has struggled mightily on defense through the first five weeks of the regular season, and although my schedule-adjusted numbers have them slightly better than their raw numbers, they still give up chunks of yardage on the ground — where Boise State shines.
The Broncos' 90.6 PFF rushing grade ranks fifth in college football, and they are generating 0.179 expected points added per rushing play to go with a 47.1% success rate and 2.2 yards per carry before contact on the ground. Star running back Ashton Jeanty is putting up 3.7 yards per carry after contact and has 11 10-plus-yard runs on 80 attempts, forcing 26 missed tackles on those carries. San Jose State gave up eight yards per carry against Oregon State's Damien Martinez in September, and Toledo’s Peny Boone ran for 9.5 yards per carry against them two weeks ago.
The over is in play here because while San Jose State is going to allow Boise State to rack up yards, their offense stacks up nicely against the Broncos. The pass-happy Chevan Cordeiro matches up with one of the worst secondaries in the country so far, as my adjusted numbers have the Boise State unit as the second worst in college football. The Broncos gave up 11 yards per attempt to Washington (which is acceptable), UCF and San Diego State before giving up almost 10 yards per attempt to Memphis last week.
