UCLA vs. Boise State Prediction, Preview, and Odds
Bowl season is upon us, and we have a thrilling matchup in the Starco Brands LA Bowl on Saturday as the UCLA Bruins square off against the Boise State Broncos. UCLA enters this game at 7-5 while Boise State is currently 8-5. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 ET from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA.
Bruins Drop Three of Final Four Games
Chip Kelly has revitalized the UCLA football program, and this will be his third consecutive bowl game appearance. He enters this contest at 34-34 (.500) as the head coach of the program. Despite making a bowl game, I’d say that this season didn’t reach the heights that were expected. The Bruins dropped three of their final four games, with the losses coming against Arizona (27-10), Arizona State (17-7), and California (38-20). The lone win over the stretch was a 38-20 rivalry victory against USC. From a sports betting perspective, UCLA is 5-7 ATS and they’ve seen 10 of their 12 games go under the total.
Starting quarterback Dante Moore (1,610 passing yards) has entered the transfer portal, which means Ethan Garbers will likely take the reins of the offense. The signal caller received significant playing time this season, completing 89 of his 134 pass attempts (66.4%). He threw for 984 yards while adding nine touchdowns and three interceptions. Carson Steele spearheaded the rushing attack, amassing 847 yards on 167 carries (5.1 YPC).
Defensively, UCLA was one of the better units in the country under coordinator D’Anton Lynn. His defense allowed just 19.1 points per game (against FBS opponents), which was 18th overall in college football. It’s worth noting that the Bruins will be without PAC-12 DPOY Laiatu Latu (EDGE), who will opt out of the game. Kamari Ramsey (S), who racked up 40 tackles and an interception, will miss the game as well (transfer portal).
Broncos Secure Mountain West Title
Anytime you can bring home a conference championship, it should be considered a successful season. However, Andy Avalos was let go as head coach after starting 5-5, making room for defensive coordinator Spencer Danielson to take control. Danielson led the Broncos to three straight wins, defeating Utah State (45-10), Air Force (27-19), and UNLV (44-20) in the Mountain West title game. As for the sports betting numbers, Boise State comes into this contest at 7-4-2 ATS and they’ve seen nine of their 13 games go over the total.
Starting quarterback Taylen Green has opted to hit the transfer portal (Arkansas) and second-stringer Maddux Madsen is sidelined with a leg injury. That means CJ Tiller, who is a true freshman, will likely get the nod under center. Tiller has yet to play a collegiate snap, but it’s worth mentioning he was a three-star recruit out of Rancho Cucamonga High School in California. Ashton Jeanty will help power the offense as he led the rushing attack with 1,262 yards on 203 totes (6.2 YPC).
Danielson’s defense put up respectable numbers this season, allowing just 25.4 points per game (56th). In terms of yardage, that translated to being the 71st-best unit, where they surrendered 391.6 yards per contest.
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Full-Game Side Bet
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I’d usually try to find an angle to back the group of five team in this type of game considering bowl games mean more to those schools; however, I can’t get there knowing that CJ Tiller, who has never played a snap at the college level, will be getting the start for Boise State. I’m going to lay the 4.0 points with the Bruins in this one.
On top of the inexperience, Tiller will also be running into a UCLA squad that ranked 18th in points against this season (19.1 opposing PPG). Well, can’t Boise State rely on its seventh-ranked run game (214.8 rushing YPG) to aid the young quarterback? I expect the Broncos to feed Ashton Jeanty (6.2 YPC), but he may not have an easy day at the office. He’ll be tasked with navigating a Bruins defense that was third in all of college football in rushing yards against. This unit allowed just 67.7 rushing yards per game. Look for the Bruins to stack the box and force Tiller to beat them deep (which I don’t think he’ll be able to do). Give me UCLA.
Prediction: UCLA Bruins 4.0 (-111)
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On that note, I’ll also take the under in the Starco Brands LA Bowl. I don’t anticipate Boise State straying from the run game very much. They ranked 16th in the country this season in rushing attempts per game, using 40.6. Factor in that they have a true freshman at quarterback, and we may see that number go even higher. Look for a lot of short-yardage runs against this vaunted UCLA rush defense.
On the flip side, UCLA was surprisingly a run-heavy team as well this year. They ranked 14th in rushing attempts per game, using 40.8. This isn’t your vintage Chip Kelly offense from the Oregon years, these guys enjoy establishing the run. I think both teams opt to play a somewhat conservative game. 49.0 points is a bit too high for my liking, so I’ll play the under.
