Boise State vs. UNLV odds, line: 2023 Mountain West Championship Game picks, predictions from proven model
The Boise State Broncos aim for a record fourth Mountain West Championship Game victory Saturday when they visit Allegiant Stadium to face the UNLV Rebels. The Broncos (7-5, 6-2) are playing in the MWC Championship Game for a seventh time, extending their record, and are tied with Fresno State with three titles. The Rebels (9-2, 6-2) are in the title game for the first time despite closing the season with a 37-31 loss to San Jose State last Saturday. The Broncos beat Air Force 27-19 last Friday and edged SJSU for the spot in the championship based on computer rankings.
Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET in Las Vegas. The latest Boise State vs, UNLV odds via SportsLine consensus list the Broncos as 2.5-point favorites, while the over/under for total points scored is set at 59. Before you make any UNLV vs. Boise State picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a stunning profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It finished the 2023 regular season a profitable 13-9 on top-rated spread picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Boise State vs. UNLV and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine to see the model's CFB picks. Here are several college football odds and trends for UNLV vs. Boise State:
- Boise State vs. UNLV spread: Broncos -2.5
- Boise State vs. UNLV over/under: 59 points
- Boise State vs. UNLV money line: Broncos -139, Rebels +117
- BSU: Is 10-5-2 ATS in conference games the past two seasons.
- UNLV: Is 9-7 ATS in MWC matchups over the past two seasons.
- Boise State vs. UNLV picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Boise State vs. UNLV live stream: fubo (try for free)
Why Boise State can cover
The Broncos are 6-4-2 against the spread this season, and they are powered by an elite run game. They average 207.5 rushing yards and 437 total yards, both second-best in the Mountain West, and score 32 points per game (fourth). Running back Ashton Jeanty averages a conference-best 111.3 yards per game, putting up 1,113 yards and 13 TDs despite missing two games. He averages 6.1 per carry, while George Holani (530 yards, five TDs) averages 5.5.
Jeanty also has 536 receiving yards, second on the team to Eric McAlister, who has 837 and averages 18.7 per catch. The Rebels allow 392 yards per game, seventh in the MWC, and Boise quarterback Taylen Green can make big plays. The sophomore has 1,526 passing yards while splitting time with Maddux Madsen, but the freshman is out for the season with an ankle injury. Green is a threat on the run, as he has 346 rushing yards and seven TDs on the ground. See which team to pick here.
Why UNLV can cover
The Rebels are 10-2 ATS this season, the second-best mark in FBS, and have won eight of their past nine games. They face a Boise team that is 1-5 ATS in MWC title games. The emergence of highly-recruited quarterback Jayden Maiava started UNLV's run, as the freshman has 2,646 passing yards and 14 touchdown passes in nine starts. Ricky White leads the MWC in receiving yards per game (109), averaging 17.3 per catch and scoring seven touchdowns.
Maiava has at least 225 passing yards in seven straight games and has a completion of at least 50 yards in six of nine starts. The Boise defense allows 255 passing yards per game, most in the Mountain West. The Rebels also have power in the backfield, with Vincent Davis leading the team with 667 yards (5.7 per carry) and Jai'Den Thomas scoring 12 of the team's 36 rushing TDs. Jacob De Jesus averages 16.8 yards on punt returns (third in FBS) and 26.4 on kickoffs. See which team to pick here.
How to make Boise State vs. UNLV picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 57 points. The model also says one side of the spread is hitting nearly 60% of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
