Colombia vs Mexico World Baseball Picks & Odds
Despite some pop at the place for Colombia, the underdogs in this WBC matchup face one of the World's best pitchers in Julio Urias. That will be the difference Saturday, as Mexico should cruise to an easy win.
The World Baseball Classic is in full swing this Saturday, with eight games taking place all across the globe, including Pool C action getting underway when Mexico takes on Colombia.
Mexico has a chance to make some noise in this tournament and is expected to qualify for the quarterfinals, along with juggernaut USA, from this pool. But that means they can’t sleep on a team like Colombia which has an underrated roster.
To help combat that, Mexico will hand the ball to one of the best pitchers in the world, Julio Urias. Will the Los Angeles Dodgers lefty overpower the upstart Colombians? I break down the World Baseball Classic odds and give you my best betting picks for Colombia vs. Mexico.
Colombia vs Mexico odds: Moneyline, run line, Over/Under
Colombia vs Mexico picks and predictions
Mexico has one of the best rosters outside the Big 3 of the World Baseball Classic (Dominican Republic, USA, and Japan) and is -300 to qualify out of Pool C and advance to the quarterfinals. But with its pitching staff, Mexico’s goals are probably a bit loftier than that.
The trio of Los Angeles Angels starter Patrick Sandoval, the Philadelphia Phillies' Taijuan Walker, and the Houston Astros' Jose Urquidy would make this one of the better rotations in this tournament. But throw in ace Julio Urias of the Los Angeles Dodgers, who gets the ball in this matchup against Colombia, and suddenly scoring runs against Mexico looks like a daunting task.
Mexico wants no slip-ups in its tournament opener so it hands the ball to Urias. The left-hander is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Urias pitched to a 2.16 ERA, and a 0.96 WHIP, and limited opponents to a .199 batting average with the Dodgers last season, finishing third in National League Cy Young voting.
He’ll face a Colombia lineup that has some Big League talent. Most notably, the Angels' Gio Urshela, the Twins' Donovan Solano, the Rays' Harold Ramirez, and catcher Jorge Alfaro who is in camp with the Boston Red Sox. Ramirez has the most pop in this lineup, but good contact could be hard to come back against Urias, who was in the Top 4% of the league in hard-hit percentage.
Unfortunately, Colombia was dealt a big blow right before the tournament as their best starter, Mets pitcher Jose Quintana, had to pull out with a rub injury that could keep him out for a month.
So instead, Colombia is trying a pitcher-by-committee approach in their opener, handing the ball to San Diego Padres reliever Nabil Crismatt. The right-hander is coming off the best year of his career, pitching to a 2.94 ERA over 50 appearances with the Padres.
However, uncertainty follows. There are a bunch of minor leaguers on the roster who could make the jump to the Bigs soon, but exactly who they can count on is up in the air. And that’s not great against a dangerous Mexico lineup.
Now, Mexico was dealt its own blow when All-Star catcher Alejandro Kirk of the Toronto Blue Jays decided to pass on the tournament for paternal leave, but there are still some strong hitters in this lineup, particularly in the outfield where Randy Arozarena and Alex Verdugo will man the corners. While Rowdy Tellez and Jonathan Aranda will be the big boppers in the middle of this lineup. Plus, they have a capable backup for kirk in Austin Barnes.
But when it comes down to it, Urias is the biggest difference-maker here. He limited Major League teams to two earned runs or fewer in 27 of his 31 starts last season.
The No Run in the 1st Inning at +105 is worth a look here. But Urias should lead Mexico to a multi-run victory in their tournament opener.
My best bet: Mexico alternate runline -2.5 (-120 at bet365)
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Colombia vs Mexico moneyline analysis
Mexico opened this Pool C matchup as massive -500 favorites. That’s an implied win probability of 83.3%. This makes sense considering baseball odds are all about starting pitching, and this game features a huge mismatch.
Urias is one of the best starting pitchers in all of baseball. No matter the league. And while there is some Major League talent in this Colombia lineup, it is nothing he can’t handle.
Meanwhile, Colombia is in a tough spot, giving the ball to their best pitcher. Unfortunately, for them, Crismatt is a reliever, meaning he can only pitch an inning or two tops. There are some other live arms on this roster, but there are too many unknowns, going against a solid Mexico lineup. This line is deserved.
Colombia vs Mexico Over/Under analysis
The total for this matchup is on the board at 8.5, and if you like the Over, you have to be fairly confident that Mexico will be able to do the heavy lifting here.
It’s going to be hard to see Colombia getting consistent production against Urias outside of maybe Gio Urshela and Harold Ramirez. Ursehla is coming off a season with the Twins where he hit .285 with a .767 OPS and 13 home runs, while Ramirez had a breakout year for the Rays hitting .300 with a .747 OPS and seven homers.
On the other side, Arozarena, Verdugo, and Tellez mean this Mexico lineup clearly has more pop. But none of those guys are great contact hitters. If the Colombia pitching staff can keep them off balance and limit the long balls, with Urias on the other side, this game should sneak below the number.
Colombia vs Mexico game info
Colombia vs Mexico starting pitchers
Nabil Crismatt: Crismatt is a right-handed reliever for the San Diego Padres coming off the best season of his career, pitching to a 2.94 ERA over 50 appearances. He uses a variety of offspeed pitches to keep hitters off balance.
Julio Urias: Urias isn't just Mexico's best pitcher, he's one of the best in the MLB. The Los Angeles Dodgers lefty led the NL with his 2.19 ERA in 2022 and finished the year third in Cy Young voting.
