Great Britain vs Mexico World Baseball Picks & Odds
Great Britain appear to be woefully overmatched in the World Baseball Classic, and in front of a crowd that should favor Mexico, there's little reason to think the favorites won't romp on Tuesday night.
Great Britain will try to dig themselves out of a 1-2 hole in the Pool C standings when they take on Mexico in their next World Baseball Classic game tonight.
Mexico bounced back in a big way off a heartbreaking loss in their WBC opener by pounding Team USA on Sunday, 11-5.
Can the Mexicans avoid the upset tonight? Find out in our free World Baseball Classic betting picks and predictions for Great Britain vs Mexico on Tuesday, March 14.
Great Britain vs Mexico odds: Moneyline, run line, Over/Under
Great Britain vs Mexico picks and predictions
It’s difficult to expect Great Britain to stay within shouting distance of Mexico in this tilt at Chase Field tonight.
Joseph King gets the starting nod for Great Britain after recording two outs in a relief appearance earlier in the tournament. King was a ninth-round draft choice of the St. Louis Cardinals last year, and has never pitched at the professional level (3.72 ERA over 72 2/3 innings in his junior year at Cal-Berkeley). He appears to be getting fed to the wolves on Tuesday night.
Mexico has needed only two games to plate 16 runs, grabbing 11 off a solid American pitching staff on Sunday. Randy Arozarena finished with three hits and two RBI in that tilt, to go with a home run that he hit against Colombia in his first WBC game.
Joey Meneses also had an excellent Sunday, gathering three hits and five RBI of his own. Power-hitting lefty Rowdy Tellez took an 0-for-5 on Saturday, but bounced back with a two-RBI single on Sunday, part of a three-hit performance.
This lineup looks capable of demolishing a Great Britain pitching staff that owns a 9.78 ERA in the WBC, third-worst in the tournament as of Tuesday morning.
Taijuan Walker counters on the mound for Mexico, and bettors should expect his “first half” prowess to carry over to the WBC.
Walker went 7-2 with a 2.55 ERA for the Mets before last year’s All-Star break (16 games), then finished the year going 5-3 with a 4.80 ERA (13 games). His splits were even starker in 2021, as he went 7-3 with a 2.66 ERA in the first half (17 games), and 0-8 with a 7.13 ERA in the second half (13 games). Walker has a 3.84 career ERA in Spring Training with 117 strikeouts over 124 1/3 innings.
He isn’t known as a strikeout pitcher, as he’s more of a groundball specialist. However, Walker should get some help from a Great Britain team that has flailed thus far in the WBC, tallying 28 strikeouts over three games (90 at-bats).
Mexico has a solid bullpen, and the benefit of a day off heading into this tilt. This should be a cakewalk for them, so lay the runs tonight.
My best bet: Mexico -6.5 (-125 at bet 365)
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Great Britain vs Mexico moneyline analysis
The moneyline on this contest is incredibly steep, making a play on Mexico wholly unappetizing. However, a wager on Great Britain is almost a surefire loser.
For the reasons I outlined above, Mexico is a much better bet on the runline. Great Britain’s pitching staff consists of many players who simply aren’t cut out for the MLB, or at least not yet in the case of King.
The Mexican lineup is dominated by MLB-caliber talent, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see them produce double-digit runs for the second time in three days. Having Walker on the hill against a British lineup full of unknowns only helps.
Mexico should be playing in front of a raucous crowd that will mostly be in their favor, if Saturday’s tilt against Colombia is any indication. It didn’t help them that night, but the fans could easily distract a Great Britain team that, by and large, isn’t used to playing in situations like this.
Great Britain vs Mexico Over/Under analysis
Team Mexico could carry this Over pretty much by themselves. With Arozarena, Tellez, and Meneses all in good form — and players like Alex Verdugo and Luis Urias also hanging around their lineup — it will be tough for a Great Britain pitching staff stacked with amateurs to keep this offense in check.
They had a heck of a time holding the United States to six runs, and Colombia plated five runs against them despite their 7-5 win. Canada clubbed the British hurlers to the tune of 18 runs on Sunday.
Great Britain has been far from hapless on offense, plating 17 runs over three WBC games. Trayce Thompson is batting .300 on the tournament so far, and Harry Ford has two home runs.
If Mexico jumps out to a sizable lead, Walker could take an early exit in favor of some “depth” pieces from the bullpen, which would make for an easier time at the plate for the British.
Great Britain vs Mexico game info
Great Britain vs Mexico starting pitchers
Joseph King: King makes his first start for Great Britain in the WBC, but his second appearance in the tournament. King recorded two outs in a relief appearance, striking out one. The Cal-Berkeley product, who authored a 3.72 ERA over 72 2/3 innings in his junior year, was a ninth-round draft choice of the St. Louis Cardinals in 2022.
Taijuan Walker: Walker had one of his best seasons to date for the New York Mets in 2022, going 12-5 with a 3.49 ERA. The newly-minted Philadelphia Phillies starter makes his 2023 WBC debut here. Walker has a career ERA of 3.89 over 898 innings, with 806 strikeouts under his belt, and a WHIP of 1.23.
