Coral Gold Cup: an early 8-1 fancy for Saturday's feature
Monbeg Genius has plenty going for him in the Coral Gold Cup on Saturday and makes plenty of appeal at the general 8/1 on offer.
Twenty-three horses remain in the mix for the £250,000 Newbury feature after Monday’s confirmations but it’s the Jonjo O’Neill-trained seven-year-old who stands out. He has all the attributes required for one of the season’s great staying handicap chases and the only surprise, at least to me, is that he’s not clear favourite in the ante-post betting.
The Shantou gelding has won half of his ten races, progressing well as a novice last season when he reeled off three successive handicap victories at Newcastle and Chepstow. None of those races got to the bottom of him and, despite rising an aggregate of 18lb, he then ran a stormer to finish a close third in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
He was unfortunate to land up in something of a vintage edition, with Corach Rambler and Fastorslow being the pair who outmuscled him in the closing stages. The winner, who was gaining his second win in the race, went on to bolt up in the Grand National, while the runner-up has since twice lowered the colours of Gold Cup hero Galopin des Champs.
The trio pulled clear and those who trailed home well beaten included Good Boy Bobby (back-to-back wins at Chepstow and Sandown this term) plus Threeunderthrufive (subsequently a close fourth in the Scottish Grand National and runner-up in this term’s Badger Beer Chase), not to mention Cloudy Glen, who won the 2021 Coral Gold Trophy, and Remastered, who was runner-up in last year’s edition.
I’d imagine the O’Neill camp have been working backwards from the Coral Gold Cup ever since, with a 7lb rise for his Cheltenham run still leaving plenty of wriggle room. Corach Rambler is 13lb higher, while Fastorslow had shot up 18lb even before his latest defeat of Galopin Des Champs.
Some will no doubt be put off by Monbeg Genius being pulled up on his return at Ascot this month, but he was going fine, in midfield, when blundering badly five from home and almost parting company with Jonjo O’Neill Jr, who threw in the towel soon after.
It’s difficult to know where he would have finished without that error, but he had been very easy to back – suggesting the run would be needed – and had shifted left at plenty of his fences, indicating right-hand tracks will never show him to best advantage.
Had he won, he would have picked up a 4lb penalty, which would have been careless. Madison Du Berlais (2008) and Triolo D’Alene (2013) have been among those beaten in that Ascot race before going on to triumph at Newbury.
Monbeg Genius is usually a sound jumper and was among those who had a spin at Newbury’s gallops morning last week. He should be spot-on for a race the yard won with Cloth Cap three years ago, plus has shown himself to be versatile in terms of ground conditions. Four of the past six winners have been rated between 146-149, so that’s another tick in his box.
In addition to fancying him on Saturday, I’ve already backed him for the Welsh Grand National, at Chepstow, on December 27. He’s unbeaten in three starts at the track, promises to stay the extra yardage and would pick up only a 4lb penalty if successful at Newbury. Most firms quote him at 10/1. Native River did the double in 2016.
Two other second-season chasers, Complete Unknown and Mahler Mission, are marginally preferred in the market, with both being a top-price 7/1.
Each has the right kind of profile for the race, but it doesn’t look like Complete Unknown is going to get the deep ground he relishes – four of his five career wins have been achieved on heavy going according to Timeform – while Mahler Mission hails from a yard who, at the time of typing, have had 118 successive losers, dating back to October 13.
Overall, the first thing I do when trying to trim down candidates for the race is put a line through any runner aged nine or older because they generally find themselves vulnerable to younger rivals open to greater improvement.
The only winners this century aged 9 or older have been Denman (2009), who was simply one of the greatest staying chasers there has been, plus the less heralded Sizing Tennessee (2018). The latter won an unusual renewal that was contested by the smallest number of runners since 1996.
I’d love to see Ahoy Senor put up a bold show because it’s refreshing to see a horse rated 169 in the line-up. However, it doesn’t look like he’s ever going to give up his habit of trying to take the odd fence with him and he’s going to have to put up a monumental effort conceding 12lb and upwards.
Stolen Silver impressed on his return and is unexposed at the trip but, like Complete Unknown, seems at his most effective when the mud is flying. Ground conditions are currently described as good to soft and, while some rain and snow is possible before the weekend, the forecast for the days ahead is predominately dry and cold.
Bigger threats could emerge from Ireland in the shape of Stumptown, who was runner-up in last season’s Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir, and Max Flamingo.
The latter is dismissed as a 50/1 chance and has basically been disappointing since running well in the 2022 edition of the Irish Grand National, but he did offer a bit more encouragement over an inadequate trip at Down Royal last time.
