Corner Picks: Best soccer bets include Champions League finalist Inter and Bayern in midst of Bundesliga fight

cbssports.com

19 May 2023

The season is almost over! While Serie A and La Liga will play into the first weekend of June, for the Premier League and Bundesliga, it's the season's penultimate weekend. Somehow this has caught me all by surprise.

You would think that the World Cup break that pushed everything back (the season usually ends now or a little earlier) would have me feeling like the campaign has gone on forever, but it's the opposite. This season has flown by. Perhaps it's because I'm doing so well in this column.

The end of the season can be tricky, though. It's hard to know what to expect from teams sitting in mid-table spots with nothing to play for, so we're avoiding those teams this weekend. All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Bayern Munich vs. RB Leipzig

I was wrong. Earlier this season, I wrote how I didn't believe the Bundesliga would have a title race. At the time, Union Berlin sat in first, but I didn't think it was possible they would hang on. In that aspect, I was right. I was wrong in believing Bayern Munich were good enough to pull away from everybody. They're not, and that, combined with Borussia Dortmund only losing one of its last 17 matches, means we enter the final two weeks with Bayern holding a one-point lead in the standings.

Leipzig sit third, and while they have no shot of winning the league, they have not clinched a Champions League place yet. They have no reason to relax this weekend, and this should lead to a high-scoring affair. While Leipzig's defending has been just as good on the road as at home, Bayern's attack is devastating at home. Bayern scored 3.25 goals on 2.69 expected goals (xG) per home match compared to 2.31 goals on 1.81 xG per match on the road. With everything to play for and this being Bayern's final home match of the season, they will go all out and could get four on their own. However, we will rely on a Bayern defense that's been leaky all season (the reason this race is so close) to give Leipzig opportunities as well. The Pick: Over 3.5 (-110)

Nottingham Forest vs. Arsenal

I have some concerns about Arsenal's mental state heading into this match. After last week's 3-0 loss to Brighton, players like Martin Odegaard admitted in interviews afterward that their hopes of winning the Premier League were done. So it's not out of the question we could see a zombie Arsenal squad resigned to a second-place finish. But I don't want to bet Nottingham Forest. Forest are still fighting to avoid relegation, and a win here would seal safety, but they are so terrible defensively that betting on them to do so is too big a risk.

Instead, we'll bet on goals! Now, I don't hate the Over 2.5 in this spot, but the juice on it is (-175). I don't think either team is winning this match 3-0, so I'd much rather bet Both Teams to Score at (-140). I know Forest are going to allow a goal. Even Arsenal at half speed can break this team down. I'm also confident that Forest's desperation and decent scoring prowess at home (where it's scored 26 of its 36 goals) will come through. The Pick: Both Teams to Score (-140)

Featured Game| Nottingham Forest vs. Arsenal

Napoli vs. Inter

As a Napoli fan, I'm thankful the season is ending now rather than starting because if you were to restart the season with teams in their current condition, I'd pick Inter to win Serie A and be concerned about Napoli even finishing top four. While Napoli have already won the Scudetto, the truth is this team had the life ripped out of it when it lost to AC Milan in the Champions League. Napoli have been playing at half-speed since. While they managed 1-0 wins over Juventus and Fiorentina, they also dropped points to Salernitana, Udinese and Monza. They also allowed opponents far more chances in recent weeks than they had been all season.

Then there's Inter, who are absolutely flying right now. They just knocked AC Milan out of the Champions League, winning their semifinal by an aggregate score of 3-0. They're on to the Champions League final against Manchester City, and they have won eight straight by a combined score of 22-3. Two of the three goals allowed came in the 4-2 win over Sassuolo played between the Champions League legs against Milan, so they could've been a bit distracted. I have some concern about the Coppa Italia final that looms, but Inter have not clinched a top-four spot yet, so they needs a result here. They will get it. The Pick: Inter (+150)

Featured Game| Napoli vs. Inter

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