Corner Picks, best soccer bets, odds, predictions: Can Milan hold off Atalanta? Everton look to shock Brighton
If there were a Champions League for betting soccer, I would not qualify. I wouldn't even make the Conference League.
It was another mid-week bloodbath betting the Round of 16, but I'm trying not to get down. I've had a long, successful run in this column, and a bad stretch was bound to come eventually. All I can do is put my head down and continue to do the things I've done to be successful in the past.
After all, we're only a perfect weekend away from everything feeling right in the world again, so why not have that perfect weekend now?
Brighton vs. Everton
Everton got out of the relegation zone last weekend, but only due to goal differential. I still expect Everton to survive because they're only in the relegation zone due to a points deduction and because they've had a bad run of luck that should even out soon enough. In a season where goal-scoring is up dramatically in the Premier League, Everton are the only team with matches averaging fewer than 2.5 goals. Everton matches are at 2.4; the next lowest is Manchester United at 2.76.
But it's misleading. Everton have scored only three goals in their last six Premier League matches despite an xG (expected goals) of 8.0. Yes, some of that is the result of not having a great finisher, but this team is better than the numbers suggest, and Brighton has been a bit leaky on the defensive end for nearly two months now. Everton have a much better shot of getting a point here than the odds suggest. The Pick: Everton or Draw (+105)
Salernitana vs. Monza
I took a shot on a Monza to be relegated future before the season began due to uncertainty around the ownership following the passing of owner Silvio Berlusconi. Seeing as Monza are in 11th place, 13 points above the drop zone with 13 matches to play, I'll not be winning that bet. A win this weekend would nearly confirm it.
A loss would also likely doom Salernitana if they aren't already doomed. Salernitana are in last with 13 points, eight points away from safety, with little reason to believe they'll save themselves. They haven't won a match since Dec. 30 and have managed only one draw in seven matches since. They've allowed at least two goals in six of those seven matches and have only seven points in 13 home matches. The Pick: Monza (+150)
AC Milan vs. Atalanta
AC Milan have lost two straight, but there's no need to panic. Last week's 4-2 loss to Monza in league play was the result of the team resting its starters and hoping for the best. Milan are in third place, 11 points behind first-place Inter, but also seven points ahead of their opponent this weekend, Atalanta. Milan were clearly prioritizing their Europa League playoff against Rennes, which they won on aggregate.
Milan will take this match far more seriously in hopes of maintaining the lead they hold on Atalanta, but it's fair to wonder if this team is tired. This will be Milan's fifth match in 14 days, and they've only kept two clean sheets in their last nine matches. Meanwhile, Atalanta have averaged 3.2 goals over their last seven matches. Who will win? I'm not sure, but both teams will find the back of the net at least once. The Pick: Both Teams to Score (-150)
Weekend Parlay
Keeping it simple this weekend with a three-leg parlay paying +115.
- Stuttgart (-340)
- Juventus (-340)
- Real Madrid (-350)
