Corner Picks: Premier League, Serie A best bets, odds, predictions: Tottenham score goals, AC Milan win, more

cbssports.com

25 August 2023

Corner Picks: Premier League, Serie A best bets, odds, predictions: Tottenham score goals, AC Milan win, more

Is it possible that Lionel Messi joining Inter Miami is both the best and worst thing possible for MLS as a league?

There's no question that Messi has been a significant boost to the league's profile, which was to be expected. He's the greatest player of his generation (sorry, Cristiano Ronaldo stans, but even you should be conceding at this point) if not all time. His presence has helped boost interest in the league and sold subscriptions to the league's package on Apple.

But I don't know that it'll do much for the league long-term. While Messi has brought more eyeballs onto the product, those eyeballs are seeing what's happened. Simply put, Messi is too good for the league. He's a player who may be great but is 36 years old and well past his prime. During his final years at Barcelona and at PSG, Messi was brilliant, but he had slowed down, and while the magical moments still happened, they were fewer and far between.

With Inter Miami, he looks like he's 25 again. He joined a team in last place in the league, has already won a trophy, and is on the verge of winning a second. While MLS has come a long way over the years and raised its standard of play, Messi's presence has exposed how woefully behind the league remains compared with Europe's top leagues.

All of which leads me to believe that when Messi steps away, MLS will likely see its viewership numbers return to the level from whence they came. Yes, changing demographics in the United States prove that soccer is becoming increasingly popular in the country, but those kids growing up who love soccer can just as easily watch the Premier League, Serie A, La Liga or the Bundesliga as they can MLS.

Once Messi's gone, what will MLS have to offer those subscribers that the other leagues don't?

Bournemouth vs. Tottenham Hotspur

I can forgive Tottenham fans for not wanting to look too closely at their perfect start. Through two weeks, Spurs have picked up four points, including a 2-0 win last week over Manchester United. It's a lovely balm for the sting of losing Harry Kane to Bayern Munich, and it's an excellent start for new manager Ange Postecoglou. However, I am familiar with Postecoglou from his time at Celtic (I'm a Celtic fan) and enjoy how his teams play. The problem is I wondered how his style would translate to the Premier League.

Celtic is the best team in Scotland, allowing you to experiment and be more aggressive. That isn't the case at Tottenham, and while Spurs are yet to lose a match, they haven't won a match on expected goals (xG) either. In their 2-2 draw to Brentford, they were outscored 2.2-1.3 on xG. In last week's 2-0 win over United, they were outscored 2.1-1.7. Only Everton, Wolverhampton and Fulham have allowed a higher xG total than Tottenham through two weeks. Considering how leaky Bournemouth have looked at the back itself, the over seems like a solid play here, and we could be taking Tottenham overs for a while this season. The Pick: Over 2.5 (-180)

AC Milan vs. Torino

AC Milan have been a popular pick to win Serie A this season, and while it makes sense, I'm not as sold on this team as many others. Yes, they added some good players over the summer, but they also lost Sandro Tonali to Newcastle. Tonali isn't easily replaced, and I'm unsure which player on the roster is prepared to take on his role to the same level. All that said, I still like Milan this week at home against Torino.

Torino finished last year in 10th place thanks in significant part to its play on the road. However, while Torino managed nine wins in 19 road matches last season, only one of those road wins came against the top teams in Italy. In road matches against the teams that finished in the top seven, Torino beat Lazio 1-0, tied Roma 1-1, and lost to the other five by a combined score of 12-4. The Pick: AC Milan (-150)

Newcastle United vs. Liverpool

Newcastle lost to Manchester City 1-0 last week, but I was impressed by how well they played defensively. They flustered City for 90 minutes, and while they sacrificed their ability to score in the process, it was a solid approach at home. I expect Newcastle to be more aggressive at home this weekend, but they can't be too aggressive against a Liverpool side that looks dangerous.

Liverpool are undergoing a transition in the midfield that will likely take some time, and it's showing a bit defensively. That's why I believe Newcastle wins this match more often than not, but I don't see much value on the price. Instead, Newcastle's defensive solidity at home, and Liverpool perhaps being a bit less aggressive away from home, will likely lead to a lower-scoring affair than the total suggests. The Pick: Under 3.5 (-150)