Could Lucas Giolito and the Twins Be a Perfect Match?

Last time the Minnesota Twins saw Lucas Giolito, it didn't go well for him. Cleveland had acquired the right-hander off waivers from the Angels, in a last-ditch effort to catch Minnesota in the AL Central, and started him in the opener of a crucial September series. Giolito was clobbered for nine earned runs in three innings, and the Twins won 20-6. That was that.

Before seeing Giolito at his worse, we'd all seen plenty of Giolito at his best. Prior to his drop-off over the past couple seasons, he starred for the White Sox as one of the American League's better starting pitchers, receiving down-ballot Cy Young votes in 2019, 2020, and 2021. During that span the righty posted a 3.47 ERA and 3.54 WHIP in 428 innings. He was clear-cut frontline starter. THAT is the pitcher you're looking for to replace Sonny Gray.

But it's not the pitcher Giolito has been over the past two years. In 2022 he was oddly mediocre, posting a 4.90 ERA and 4.06 FIP despite being healthy enough to make 30 starts. In 2023 he pitched reasonably well for Chicago in the first half before being traded to the Angels the deadline, waived in late August, and claimed by Cleveland. His disastrous results after being traded (6.96 ERA) tanked his season, but Giolito still didn't really look like his prime self before then.

In other words, there's plenty of warranted skepticism surrounding Giolito as he makes his first foray into free agency. That's unfortunate for him, but could play into Minnesota's favor as they look to secure a Gray replacement within certain constraints and parameters.

As I detailed recently, the Twins front office will be somewhat handcuffed in their pursuit of a playoff-caliber starter to offset the loss of Gray in the rotation, because of their massive payroll commitments for 2025. This makes it hard to envision signing a free agent to a contract that includes a salaries in the $20M+ range over multiple years. 

Giolito's tough circumstances heading into free agency mean it's unlikely he'll be offered a multi-year deal with those kinds of annual salaries. Like many others who've been in similar situations, he will essentially face two choices: take a one-year "make good" deal to re-establish his value and hit the market again, or settle for a multi-year deal a relatively low AAV (i.e. the Phil Hughes path).

Either one of those avenues could potentially make him a fit for the Twins. If a number can be reached that makes sense, there are several things to like about Giolito:

• At 29, he's one of the younger starters on the free agent market.
• From the 2019-through-21 seasons, he was everything you would want in a frontline starter and co-ace for Lopez. Giolito's cumulative fWAR during that span (11.3) was better than any three-year stretch in Gray's career, even though it included the COVID season.
• Giolito has lost a bit of velocity since then, but only about 1 MPH, and he rebounded a bit this year from his 2022 dip. His best pitch, the changeup, continues to get whiffs at a 35% clip. 
• He really stands out in terms of extension (~90th percentile every year), which we know is something the Twins love and feel they can optimize around.

If Giolito were to hit the open market two years ago, following his 2021 season, he would have been in line for a $100 million deal if not $200 million. Obviously he can't erase what's happened since then, but the fact remains: he's shown to be that caliber of talent, isn't yet 30, and has no clear injury concerns.

Even in a down season, Giolito still showed glimpses of the frontline starter he's been in the past. In fact, before Chicago traded him at the deadline he was a solid approximation of what you'd realistically hope to get from Gray next year: 3.79 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9. Then he got abruptly traded twice in a short span, and everything fell apart. Not saying you can totally dismiss the last two months, especially in light of his previous season, but it's a pretty big caveat and a legit reason to believe.

If Giolito is open a betting himself on a one-year deal to re-establish his value and score the kind of free agent contract he feels he deserves, I'd be in favor of bidding aggressively to come out on top. Extending the QO means the Twins had $20 million earmarked for Gray next year, and I'd be up for using most or even all of that to convince Giolito on a one-year pact. (Especially because, like Gray, the Twins could QO him after the season if he bounces back.)

Lucas Giolito was originally drafted in 2012, the same year as Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. His career has since following a long and winding path, but now, the time feels right for him to reunite with his fellow stars of the draft class and join Minnesota's suddenly-reputed pitching program.

He's a risk, to be sure. But the Twins' existing rotation depth enables them to take such a risk, and the payoff would be well worth the gamble on the right terms.