MLB Free Agents: Latest Rumors, Predictions for Shohei Ohtani, Sonny Gray and More
For 26 of the league's 30 teams, the 2023 MLB season is already over and the focus has shifted to the rapidly approaching offseason.
Shohei Ohtani is the headliner of this year's free agency class, which also features NL Cy Young front-runner Blake Snell, All-Star closer Josh Hader, Philadelphia Phillies ace Aaron Nola, former NL MVP Cody Bellinger, standout third baseman Matt Chapman and a long list of other potential impact additions.
The rumor mill won't kick into full swing until the World Series wraps up and players officially become free agents, but that hasn't stopped a few early rumblings from surfacing in recent weeks.
Ahead is a quick roundup of the latest news from the MLB free agency rumor mill.
There's a fine line between optimism and delusion.
"While the Dodgers still are the favorite to sign free agent Shohei Ohtani, the Angels are cautiously optimistic that Ohtani will stay with them," wrote Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
It's not going to happen.
After six seasons with the Angels, three All-Star appearances, a likely second AL MVP award forthcoming this offseason, and exactly zero postseason appearances, Ohtani is a free agent for the first time since leaving Japan this offseason.
"According to an industry source briefed on Ohtani's thinking, although he prefers the West Coast, the potential to win championships will be given more weight than geography, as long as a team is willing to at least match the best offer he receives in free agency," wrote Jim Bowden of The Athletic wrote back in September.
The 29-year-old won't pitch during the 2024 season after undergoing right elbow surgery, and his future on the mound is cloudy given the fact that he already had a Tommy John surgery under his belt, but even as exclusively an offensive player he is a game-changing addition.
His free agency will be the biggest storyline of the offseason, and it's hard to see any path that leads him back to a perennially disappointing Angels team.
Prediction: Ohtani signs an eight-year, incentive-structured deal with Los Angeles Dodgers
Sonny Gray picked the perfect time for one of the best seasons of his career, posting a 2.79 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 183 strikeouts in 184 innings in the final season of a five-year, $50.7 million contract.
The 33-year-old now profiles as one of the top starting pitchers on the free-agent market this winter, and while his age might keep him from landing anything beyond a three-year deal, a significant spike in AAV is likely.
That said, money does not appear to be No. 1 on his list of deciding factors.
"Money is not the ultimate factor for me. Never has been. Having said that, you want to be valued appropriately," Gray told Dan Hayes of The Athletic. "There are a lot of factors that go into those decisions. It's not only me making it. As anyone who's known me throughout the course of this year and last year, there are a lot of other things that go into it, my wife and my kids a big part of it. But I do love it here."
The Tennessee native could end up back with the Minnesota Twins, who would likely be AL Central favorites once again with him slotted alongside Pablo López at the top of a terrific starting rotation.
Another team to keep an eye on is the St. Louis Cardinals, who are expected to "strongly pursue him" this winter, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
Prediction: Gray signs a three-year, $70 million deal with the Minnesota Twins
- Gerrit Cole: Nine years, $324 million
- Stephen Strasburg: Seven years, $245 million
- Davis Price: Seven years, $217 million
- Clayton Kershaw: Seven years, $215 million
- Max Scherzer: Seven years, $210 million
- Zack Greinke: Six years, $206.5 million
Only six pitchers in MLB history have signed a $200 million contract.
According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola had his sights set on becoming the seventh in extension talks with the team earlier this year.
"Nola was seeking an eight-year contract in excess of $200 million, while the Phillies were hoping to sign him to a four- or five-year deal," wrote Nightengale.
That might seem outlandish, but Nola has been a model of consistency over the past seven seasons, and Carlos Rodon reeled in a $162 million payday last offseason with a sketchy track record of health and performance.
It's hard to see the Phillies fitting another long-term mega deal on the books given all their current future financial commitments, but it's not out of the question to think a team that views Nola as the potential missing piece could offer up something in the ballpark of that asking price.
Prediction: Nola signs a seven-year, $175 million deal with San Francisco Giants
