Cricket betting tips: India v England fifth Test preview and best bets

Cricket betting tips: India v England, fifth Test

0.5pts Tom Hartley top England first innings batsman at 66/1 (Betfred)

0.5pts Mark Wood top England first innings batsman at 100/1 (General)

0.5pts Ravi Ashwin top India first innings batsman at 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)

A series of missed opportunities, or another step forward for Bazball in the harshest environment that Test cricket has to offer?

That is the question most England cricket fans will have asked themselves since the series was lost in Ranchi last week, the tourists’ valiant efforts not enough to prevent a five-wicket defeat that sees India now lead 3-1 ahead of the finale in Dharamsala on Thursday, starting 4:00pm UK time.

Beating India in India has become an almost impossible task in this format. Australia, currently the best team in the world, couldn’t manage it last year, and you have to go back to 2012 for the last time India lost a Test series on home soil.

To their great credit, England have certainly given them a run for their money, the inexperienced spin attack holding its own to defy many expectations, and the top order leaving behind the struggles here in 2021 by hitting India hard and putting the likes of Ravi Ashwin under pressure they haven’t felt at home in a long time.

England rue missed opportunities

England have come up short, but they aren’t the first and won’t be the last, and I can’t remember an away team putting it up to India at home in the way England have. But that’s where the frustration lies: the what might have been.

England led 1-0 after victory in Hyderabad and have had their chances in every match since, none more so than in Ranchi when winning what appeared to be a crucial Toss and posting 353 batting first, before reducing the hosts to 177-7 in reply.

England should not have lost from that position, that they did a result of their own failings and India’s brilliance. Once again, another position of dominance had slipped through their fingers.

On the balance of play across the first four matches, few could argue if the scoreline was now 2-2, with a series decider in Dharamsala to come, but for all the progress that has been made with this England team, Ben Stokes and Brendon McCullum will know there is work still to be done.

This week would be a good place to start, at the HPCA Stadium in Dharamsala, located the foothills of the Himalayas, with its cooler temperatures meaning the ground is renowned as the best venue for seamers in India. As such, India’s players often train here in preparation for tours of England and Australia.

That ought to suit England, and in particular James Anderson who is now only two shy of 700 Test wickets, but India are expected to welcome back Jasprit Bumrah, while fellow seamers Mohammed Siraj and Akash Deep both impressed in the first innings in Ranchi.

The last and only Test match played on this ground came back in 2017, also in March, when India beat Australia by eight wickets. Australia made 300 batting first, India 332 in reply.

Australia were then blown away in their second innings, but the wickets were shared around with Ashwin, Jadeja and Kuldeep Yadav taking four wickets each in the match, Nathan Lyon five in the first innings, a young Pat Cummins four across both innings, and paceman Umesh Yadav five in the match.

What to expect in Dharamsala?

I’d be wary about making too many assumptions about the pitch at this stage, and I think the Ranchi Test illustrated that perfectly. Even on day one, pundits and players alike were predicting the surface there would implode by days three and four, but it held together well, and such concerns were proven to be way off the mark.

Away from all the noise, there were large periods of the first two days when the pitch looked placid and good for batting, and getting swayed by outside voices with little or no experience of these venues will likely lead us to the poor house.

I’ll judge for myself on Thursday and will hopefully have one or two in-play runs wagers at the end of each day’s play.

What we do know is that the atmospherics here, and the fact that conditions have been cold and cloudy in Dharamsala over the last few weeks, means the new ball should do plenty through the air, regardless of the pitch itself.

Both teams can call upon expert new-ball bowlers, and with that in mind, I’m going to chance my arm at big prices down the order in the top team batsman markets.

England’s top batsman market is pretty straightforward, given the struggles of the middle order, and that Ollie Pope hasn’t past 40 since his magnificent 196 in the first Test. On that middle order, Stokes’ series average of 24.62 is the best on offer, with neither Jonny Bairstow nor Ben Foakes managing a fifty between them.

Hartley and Wood at big prices

If Bumrah – who has 17 wickets at 13.64 in the series so far – can get that new ball talking, the stage might be set for someone down the order to win the top England batsman market, with TOM HARTLEY looking a good place to start.

Hartley is enjoying an impressive maiden tour, claiming 20 wickets already, while also producing a number of handy cameos with the bat, namely 23 and 34 in Hyderabad, and 21 and 36 in Visakhapatnam.

A couple of centuries in First Class cricket for Lancashire would’ve told England that Hartley’s handy batting complements his left-arm finger-spin well, but his attitude and aptitude for the fight has really shone through, and I’ve enjoyed his willingness to take the game to India and regularly pound Ashwin over his head for six.

Hartley is clearly a very gifted cricketer, and a wholehearted one, too, and given that England have twice been bowled out for under 150 in the last two matches, the clean-hitting left-hander could well win this market with another one of his quickfire cameos.

Hartley looks worth a spin at 66/1 (Betfred), as does MARK WOOD who won this market with a 33 from only 15 balls in the second innings of third Test as England’s batting again collapsed badly.

Wood’s batting has really improved in the last couple of years. His modus operandi is all-out aggression, something that will work well in this market if England lose enough early wickets. In such a scenario, India are sure to bring the field up and sacrifice a few cheap hits from Wood in order to wrap up the innings.

That’s what happened in that third Test, and when England were hammered by South Africa at the Cricket World Cup in October, when another England implosion with the bat was given a semblance of respectability by Wood who top scored with a typically bustling 43 not out.

With 100/1 freely available, I’m happy to throw a few quid at Wood.

50/1 Ashwin looks a bet

I’d be less confident about India suffering a similarly catastrophic batting collapse to the ones England have succumbed to, but nevertheless, they have hardly been bombproof and have also lost wickets in clusters.

With that in mind, I’m going to chance RAVI ASHWIN, who has five Test centuries to his name, in the top India batsman market at 50/1.

Ashwin is just the sort of stubborn customer who can win this market if India do suffer early casualties and one of his Test hundreds did come against England, along with six fifties.

Ashwin has made a few decent contributions with the bat already in this series and assuming he again bats at number eight, could well have the opportunity to make his mark if Anderson and co can make early inroads.

At the prices, I’ll be chancing my arm to small stakes.

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