Cricket betting tips: India v England second Test preview and best bets

Cricket betting tips: India v England second Test

2pts Axar Patel top India first innings batsman at 33/1 (General)

2pts Jasprit Bumrah top India first innings bowler at 9/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

What a difference a week makes. India began the first of this five Test series in Hyderabad apparently unbeatable at home, with England short on quality and experience with the ball, and a batting line-up still expected to be battered and bruised from a tortuous tour of these shores in 2021.

Fast forward just a matter of days it's India with much to ponder and problems to solve. Virat Kohli remains unavailable for the second Test in Vizag, KL Rahul, who made scores of 86 and 22 in the first Test, and key all-rounder Ravi Jadeja have been ruled out through injury.

England have no such concerns and could bring in a fresh James Anderson for Mark Wood. Anderson took eight wickets at an average of 15.87 here in 2021, with an economy rate of just 1.92.

With Ollie Pope coming into this week on the back of a coming-of-age, match-winning 196 – arguably the greatest of all Test innings played by an Englishman – runs for Ben Stokes and Ben Duckett, along with nine wickets on debut for Tom Hartley, the England garden is looking decidedly rosy.

Jadeja absence leaves India searching for answers

Perhaps the most significant factor in Vizag will be the absence of Jadeja, just about the most important member of this India Test team. Jadeja claimed 22 wickets at 18.86 in last year’s home series win over Australia, but just as important is his batting in the middle order. India’s expected reshuffle in the middle order does, though, open the door for a bet.

Jadeja's batting has developed to such an extent that he is now a crucial component of the India middle order, and he once again demonstrated that with 87 from number five in the first innings last week.

More important for this series is that he is a left hander, well suited to combat England’s left-arm spin duo of Hartley and Jack Leach. If the pitches continue to spin, the right handers will continue to find the going tough against those left-arm finger spinners who should do the bulk of England's bowling.

India know that, too, and even last week when Jadeja was fit to bat in the second innings, they made the strategic decision to move AXAR PATEL up the order to number five in order to get another left hander in there, and he made 17 in challenging conditions to go with his typically assured 44 in the first innings.

Axar, though better known for his bowling, is a very good batsman, particularly in these conditions. He was one of the few bright spots for Delhi Capitals in last year’s IPL, and in the aforementioned series win over Australia, finished with the highest average of any Indian, scoring 264 runs at 88.00, with three fifties. Only Kohli, who made 186 on a flat pitch in the last match of the series, finished with more runs than Axar.

Make no mistake, Axar bats well, and with the strong likelihood that he will bat in the top six to negate England’s two left-arm spinners – which he has the game to do – he has to be of considerable interest in the top India first innings batsman market.

Sky Bet, William Hill and bet365 go 33/1, which makes a lot of appeal, and there is 25/1 freely available elsewhere, too. In fact, given I reckon he could bat as high as number five, I don’t think he should be any bigger than 10/1 or 12/1 here. At the current odds available, I’ll be having a decent bet.

The England batsman market suddenly has a more competitive look to it, though it’s worth adding a word of caution here. As well as Pope played, he was the only Englishman to pass fifty in that second innings, and Stokes the only one to do so in the first innings, so I wouldn’t be sure England’s batsmen have conquered India just yet.

What conditions India serve up this week – without one of their key bowlers and three of their of their recognised top six – remains to be seen. The hosts might now fear they can’t bank on spin doing the job, especially when their own batting line-up has a few questions to answer. Suddenly it is the hosts who are under pressure and with big decisions to make.

Bumrah the best bet for India

Jadeja’s injury also means the bowling is now even more reliant on Ravi Ashwin and JASPRIT BUMRAH.

Ashwin heads the betting in most places for top first innings India bowler, and it’s hard to argue with his quite outstanding record at home. Nevertheless, England played him well in Hyderabad, looking to attack throughout, and his six wickets across the match came at a cost of 194 runs. I thought he was laboured at times, and in the field, looked every bit of the 37-year-old he now is.

I'm sure he’ll continue to take wickets, but they will come at a cost and I'm not sure England will fear him quite as much as they have in the past. I could end up looking silly, but perhaps Ashwin's light is dimming ever so slightly, and I won’t be taking short prices about him this week or next.

Regardless of where you stand on Ashwin, there can be no argument that Bumrah remains at the top of his game. He was outstanding in the first Test and finished with 4-41 in the second innings when Pope was feasting on the rest of the home attack. His spell to dismiss Duckett and Joe Root in the second innings was a masterclass and but for Pope’s intervention, would have been a match-winning hand.

Bumrah is the best all-format bowler in the world, and probably the best Test bowler in the world across all conditions. Quick and able to swing the new ball, he is arguably even more destructive with the old ball when reverse swing comes into the game. Whatever he is faced with this week, I’m sure he’ll take wickets.

This isn't a two-horse race, with Axar and others clearly capable of impacting the game, but with the series already on the line, home captain Rohit Sharma will have to lean on his big guns, and Bumrah will need to lead from the front again. He’s no 9/2 shot and he has to be backed at the prices.

Beware Rohit rear-guard

In the 2021 series between these sides, Rohit made a brilliant 161 in Chennai to get India back into the series following a similar defeat in the opening match, and I did seriously consider backing him in the Man of the Match market. I've long held the view that Rohit likes to warm into a series, and later in 2021 when India travelled to England, he was Man of the Match in the fourth Test at the Oval thanks to a brilliant 127.

I thought he looked in good touch for a couple of promising starts last week (24 & 39) and could easily see him going big this week. On price grounds, I have to go with Axar in the top India first innings batsman market, but Rohit is on the radar, and but for a conscious effort to reduce my bets in the Man of the Match market this year, and I could have easily gone down that route.

I’ll resist for now, with 10/1 no gift anyway, but don’t rule out a big performance from India’s captain who will need to stand up in a match that while not must-win for the hosts, is pretty close.

The same can be said for experienced hands, Axar and Bumrah, and it’s that pair who will be carrying the early money this week.

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