Crystal Palace vs Brighton predictions, tips and free bets
Form book points to rivals sharing the spoils
Five of the last eight meetings between Brighton and Crystal Palace have ended in a draw with the last four derbies at Selhurst Park resulting in the points being shared.
No team has drawn more matches in the Premier League this season than Palace who have won just four of the 17 fixtures they have played all campaign.
The pattern of Thursday’s match will likely see Brighton take control of possession with Crystal Palace happy to sit deep, stay compact and hit out on the counter-attack where they can hurt the visitors with their speed.
This is what the Eagles did against Manchester City on Saturday with Michael Olise and Jean-Philippe Mateta particularly effective when they had space to burst into. Hodgson might recycle the same game plan for the clash with the Seagulls.
Betting apps are offering 5/2 on a draw being the full time result at Selhurst Park on Thursday which feels a potential outcome given the recent track record between these two rivals.
Crystal Palace vs Brighton Tip 1: Draw - 5/2 at BetMGM
Palace and Brighton to both find the net
Sunday’s 2-0 defeat to Arsenal was the first time that Brighton had been shut out in a Premier League match this season.
Until then, the Seagulls had scored and conceded at least once in every Premier League game they had played over the campaign, earning them a reputation for being one of the most entertaining teams in the division.
Palace haven’t been quite so free-scoring, finding the back of the net just 17 times in as many Premier League fixtures this term, but they did notch in each of their last two outings against title contenders City and Liverpool.
Olise and Mateta have the quality to pose a threat to the Brighton defence while Eberechi Eze could make the XI after starting on the bench against City.
Defensively, the track record of both teams also points to this being a match with a split final scoreline. Palace have conceded two or more goals in five of their last six league matches.
Betting sites have listed odds of 3/4 for both teams to score on Thursday night with Brighton and Palace both possessing attacking difference-makers who could have an impact on the scoreline.
Mateta to give Palace cutting edge
Odsonne Edouard’s knee injury means Mateta is expected to keep his place in Crystal Palace’s starting lineup for the derby against Brighton.
Mateta has found the back of the net in each of his last two Premier League appearances against Liverpool and Manchester City and will have the opportunity to extend that run when opposed by a leaky Seagulls defence.
Brighton like to deploy a high defensive line and that will give Palace the incentive to play with pace to get in behind on the counter-attack. This could be a good tactical match-up for the home side.
Premier League odds have priced Mateta at 11/4 to score at any point of Thursday’s match and given the French striker’s current run of form, we’re taking a chance on him bagging once more.
Eze is listed at 100/30 by betting sites to put the ball in the back of the net against Brighton while Olise is available at 5/1. However, it’s Mateta who will find himself in the best positions most frequently to score.
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Graham Ruthven is a football writer and podcaster who has worked for the Guardian, New York Times, Eurosport, Optus Sport and many others. He boasts an extensive knowledge of football around the world and has been a betting tipster for a number of years.
