Cubs odds, picks, predictions: Best bet for Cubs vs Cardinals (July 21)
The Chicago Cubs take on the St. Louis Cardinals today, and we have Cubs odds, picks and predictions featuring our best bet for this July 21 game.
Every time the Cubs play Friday afternoon baseball at Wrigley, it’s a must-see, must-bet event. It’s even better that they’re facing the Cardinals, re-igniting this historic NL Central rivalry.
So, read on for our best bet for Cubs vs. Cardinals today.
Odds via FanDuel, current at time of writing and subject to change.
Moneyline: Cardinals (+100) vs. Cubs (-118)
Spread: Cardinals -1.5 (+164) vs. Cubs +1.5 (-200)
Total: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
- Read our expert rankings of the best sports betting sites here.
- (1:20 p.m. CT, Apple TV+)
- Probable pitchers: Jack Flaherty (RHP) vs. Justin Steele (LHP)
The Cardinals are finally heating up. It took them long enough.
They’ve strung together eight wins in their past 10 games, primarily behind a red-hot offense. The Cards have scored 34 runs over their past five games (6.8 per game).
The Cardinals are particularly deadly against southpaws. St. Louis boasts the third-highest wRC+ against left-handed pitching over the past month.
And I expect them to continue this trend against Chicago starting pitcher Justin Steele.
Steele has improved a lot this year, mostly behind a fastball-slider combination that’s elite at suppressing hard contact. Steele has one of the best batted-ball profiles in the Majors.
But Steele was always due for some regression, which finally hit him in the past week. He’s allowed nine earned runs over his past two starts, six to the Red Sox and three to the Brewers.
Steele has a 4.13 lifetime ERA against these Cardinals, so these Redbirds know how to tag him.
The Cubbies’ lineup has had its ups and downs in 2023, but they’ve been pretty good recently. The Cubs are a top-10 offense against right-handed pitching over the past month (112 wRC+).
Seiya Suzuki has been particularly impressive, slashing .304/.365/.446 since July started. He posted a four-hit game against the Nationals on Tuesday, the second of his career.
Thanks to Suzuki and co., nine of the past 10 Cubs games have gone Over their listed total. They’ve scored 66 runs over that stretch (6.6 per game).
Expect continued success for the Cubs against St. Louis starting pitcher Jack Flaherty, who is way over the hill. Flaherty has an expected ERA of around 5.00 over the past four seasons (253 innings pitched), and he doesn’t have a single plus pitch by the Stuff+ model.
(Stuff+ is a metric designed to capture the “nastiness” of a pitch based on its physical characteristics, such as velocity, spin rate, release point, et cetera).
Between these two starting pitchers and lineups, we should see fireworks at Wrigley on Friday afternoon.
And when the pitchers are inevitably pulled, it’s nice to know that neither bullpen is elite. The Cubs and Cardinals have a combined bullpen ERA in the mid-4.00s.
Bet the Over and enjoy your Friday afternoon. You deserve it!
