Marlins vs. Cubs prediction, odds: Who gets right in series opener?

We have a Marlins vs. Cubs prediction as both squads try to bounce back from horrendous midweek performances.

The Marlins hosted the Braves and were swept, allowing 26 runs across three games. Meanwhile, the Cubs went to Washington and somehow lost three of four to the lowly Nationals.

So, which team wakes up and registers a much-needed victory in this series-opening game?

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Moneyline: Marlins (+140) vs. Cubs (-165)

Spread: Marlins +1.5 (-140) vs. Cubs -1.5 (+115)

Total: Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110)

Chicago Cubs ML (-165) | Play to (-175)

Normally, I’d look to back Marlins’ starting pitcher Edward Cabrera. The youngster has elite stuff, including a 94 mph change-up that defies pitch-style expectations.

Cabrera is still forcing whiffs and striking out plenty of batters (12 K/9). But his command has completely fallen apart, with him walking one out of every five batters through a six-start, 27-inning sample size.

That’s an unsustainable number in the long run, but projections are unanimous that he’ll walk over 10% of batters this season. That’s not good.

Meanwhile, Cubs starting pitcher Justin Steele has been near-perfect, boasting a 4-0 record and 1.49 ERA through six starts. He’s due for some regression (3.18 expected ERA) but his batted-ball profile is elite, so I’m not worried.

I think Steele will be a consistent No. 2 or 3 starter this season and far into the future. He fits the mold.

So, as expected, I’d give the Cubs the starting pitching advantage here.

Meanwhile, I am very worried about the state of the Fish moving forward.

Over the past two weeks, the Marlins rank 25th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching (77) and 26th in reliever expected FIP (4.89), two areas of the game that Miami was excelling in during the very early season.

Plus, the Marlins overperformed during April and are showing signs of regression. They’re 10-0 in one-run games and have a -52 run differential, so I’d expect the Fish to drop a few extra games moving forward.

That includes this Friday in Wrigley. Bet on the Cubs to handle business behind Steele (as long as the price isn’t too outrageous).