Reds vs. Cubs predictions, odds, picks: Best bet for Friday afternoon’s game (May 26)

The Reds and Cubbies begin a three-game weekend set at Wrigley this Friday, and we have Reds vs. Cubs predictions, odds and picks to give out.

I adore this starting pitching matchup. Hunter Greene is a young righty with nasty stuff and an uncapped ceiling, while lefty Justin Steele is having a Cy Young-level season (6-1, 2.20 ERA).

Look for these pitchers to flash that potential on Friday afternoon at Wrigley.

Odds via FanDuel, current at time of writing and subject to change.

Moneyline: Reds (+144) vs. Cubs (-172)

Spread: Reds +1.5 (-152) vs. Cubs -1.5 (+126)

Total: Over 7 (-102) | Under 7 (-120)

• Read our expert rankings of the best sports betting sites here.

(2:20 p.m. ET, MLB Network)

Steele has his whole arsenal working. He’s pitched to a 2.20 ERA behind one of the league’s best batted-ball profiles, ranking above the 96th percentile of pitchers in avg. Exit Velocity (84.6 mph) and Hard-Hit Rate (25.1%) allowed.

Steele is due for some regression, with a low .267 BABIP fueling a 3.02 expected ERA. However, based on his arsenal and contact profile, he profiles as a low-BABIP pitcher, so perhaps this level of success is more sustainable than expected.

Steele primarily throws a low-90s, high-spinning fastball and a hard-breaking slider.

Meanwhile, Greene has some of the best stuff in the Majors.

Stuff+ is a metric that attempts to capture the “nastiness” of a pitch based on its physical characterizations, with 100 being league-average (ex., 100 Stuff+ on your fastball means you have a league-average fastball).

Greene checks in with a 129 Stuff+ on his fastball and 130 on his slider, two of the best marks in baseball. Using a triple-digit fastball and a 90-mph slider, Greene has some of the league’s highest Whiff and strikeout rates.

He’s still struggling with hard contact but is due for some slight positive regression on his fastball and slider. So, I’m confident in the future.

Luckily, both pitchers should shine considering the weather report. It’s always smart to bet the under at Wrigley when the wind is blowing toward home plate, and we’re expecting double-digit breezes that way during Friday afternoon’s game.

BallParkPal projects a -41% Home Run Factor and a -22% Run Factor for today’s game, and the weather has activated one of The Action Network’s PRO systems:

At Wrigley, the under hits over 60% of the time when the wind blows anywhere but straight out. Combine that with two stud starting pitchers, and we’re in for a very low-scoring ball game.

Also, the weather especially helps Greene, whose weakness is harder-hit balls. If his batted-ball profile gets a boost from today’s weather, he’ll continue to punch out 30% of everyone else.

Neither offense scares me, as both have been hitting at a league-average rate over the past two weeks.

The bullpens do scare me, but both are relatively rested -- each team’s closer had a day off yesterday (Mark Leiter Jr., Alexis Diaz), which helps run production in a closer-fought game.

So, I feel solid about the under 7 (-120) on Friday afternoon at Wrigley. It’ll be hard to get runs off these pitchers, especially when the wind is knocking down every hard-hit ball.

Under 7 (-120) | Play to under 7 (-125)