Cubs Playoff Odds Today (September 28, 2023)

With every history-creating late-blown game, my phone buzzes: “What does that mean? Can the Cubs still make the playoffs?!” Bless their souls, but the casual Cubs fans within my inner circle are killing a tiny piece of me each time they press send on another text.

But I get it. And in a weird way, it makes me happy. All I wanted this season was for the Cubs to be relevant again, and they … kinda are? I guess? But there are just four games left and we’re watching an EPIC late-game, late-season collapse in real time, complete with (unfortunately) unforgettable on-field errors. The wounds aren’t just still fresh, they’re currently being cut!

So I’m making this post for all of you in a similar boat. The next time your girlfriend’s dad texts you about the Cubs, or your buddy’s buddy slides into your DMs, copy this link, paste it, press send, and go back to your life.

Q: How Many Teams Make the Playoffs?

A: Six from each league (Yep, it used to be 5, I know … it’s crazy. I also can’t believe they changed the rules. It’s wild man. For sure. Totally.).

Those six teams are made up of the three division winners (which have already been decided), and three Wild Card Teams (still to be determined). Here’s how that’s playing out in the National League at this moment.

The three division winners are the Atlanta Braves (NL East), Los Angeles Dodgers (NL West), and Milwaukee Brewers (NL Central). As the top two teams in the National league, the Braves and the Dodgers, will both get to skip the first round of the postseason (the “Wild Card Round”) with byes straight to the NLDS. The Brewers, by contrast, will have to play in the Wild Card round against the lowest of the three Wild Card teams (which happens to be the spot the Cubs are fighting for).

Two of the three Wild Card teams are still being determined, but the top spot has already been locked down by the Phillies. That leaves just two spots open for the next four closest teams …

So here’s a look at that semi-new playoff picture visually, if it helps:

So What Has to Happen for the Cubs to Make the Playoffs?

Here’s the kicker: the Cubs don’t hold the tiebreaker (record in head-to-head matchups this season) over any of those other Wild Card teams. So if they wind up tying anybody for that last spot, the Cubs are actually OUT. And, yes, that means right right now, they are out of the playoff picture, even though they’re tied with the Marlins for WC3 (NL #6 in the image above).

So what are the scenarios in which the Cubs make the playoffs? Well, there are actually a few. For one very unlikely example, if the Cubs win each of their last four games, and the Diamondbacks lose three or four of four, the Cubs would be in, regardless of any other team. But that’s probably not the best use of your energy, because it’s mathematically unlikely.

Instead, I think we should just focus on the Marlins. They’re tied with the Cubs and hold the tiebreaker, so here’s how things could play out:

Of course, in some of those latter scenarios, the Cubs and Marlins could actually be overtaken by the Reds, but Cincinnati has only three games left, so that’s a little more challenging.

So you can see why these last two late-game collapses in Atlanta have been so devastating. If the Cubs won just ONE of those games, they’d still be in control of their own destiny. Instead, they need the Marlins to lose at least one game. And even that, frankly, probably won’t be enough.

FanGraphs Wild Card Playoff Odds (9/28)

The Remaining Schedule

The Cubs will wrap up the season with one more game in Atlanta tonight (Marcus Stroman is on the mound). Then they’ll head to Milwaukee to face the Brewers.

The Marlins will face the Mets tonight in New York and then head to Pittsburgh to face the Pirates for three games.

The Reds are off tonight and then go to St. Louis to face the Cardinals for three.

And the Diamondbacks face the White Sox and then host the Astros at home.