The Latest Cubs Playoff Odds Are Dwindling

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I know what I said back then. Back when I wanted the Cubs to be relevant.

Just give me competitive baseball in September, and I’ll be happy.

Well, I lied.

I got a taste of the good stuff following that three-game sweep of the Giants in early September (when the Cubs’ playoff odds soared north of 90%). And I started licking my chops at an upcoming schedule filled with both winnable (nine games against the Rockies, Pirates, Rockies) and potentially convenient (seven games against the Diamondbacks) series on tap.

But the Cubs dropped two of three against Colorado and somehow managed to lose SIX of seven to Arizona. And now? Now the Cubs have a bit of a problem on their hands.

The Cubs have lost five games in a row, and are barely hanging on by a thread in the NL Wild Card Race:

NL Wild Card Standings

1. Phillies: 81-68
2. Diamondbacks: 79-72
3. Marlins: 78-72
4. Cubs: 78-72
5. Reds: 78-73
6. Giants: 76-74

Cubs Playoff Odds

Only the top-3 teams in this race will make the postseason. And while it may appear that the Cubs are still in possession of a top-three spot, that’s not actually the case. If there’s a tie at the end of the season, Chicago holds a tiebreaker over only San Francisco. Every other team in that race holds it over the Cubs. That’s a problem. And that’s why their playoff odds have drifted all the way down to 46%. Half!

Yep, the Cubs cut their playoff odds in HALF in just 10 days.

In case it’s not clear: You can forget about the NL Central. That ship has long since sailed. Even with three head-to-head matchups against Milwaukee at the end of the year, it’s out of the Cubs’ hands. The Brewers magic number for the division is down to seven, and the Cubs division odds are down to 0.9%.

But here’s where the doom and gloom ends: Objectively, they are still in this thing.

Frankly, I wouldn’t even say overtaking the Phillies is out of reach. And with six straight home games against two of the worst teams in all of baseball (Pirates and Rockies), followed by six games against a couple very good but potentially resting teams (Braves and Brewers) after that, there’s no question the Cubs could end up with a playoff series when all is said and done. So now it’s time to tell another lie.

Just give me one playoff series and I’ll be happy.

I never expected the Cubs to win the World Series this year. That part is definitely not a lie, and won’t retroactively become one.

Even when they were at their absolute best, anyone could tell you this Cubs group is out-classed by a team like the Braves, for just one example. And with 3/5 of their opening day rotation (Marcus Stroman, Hayden Wesneski, Drew Smyly) in the bullpen, plus their biggest trade deadline addition (Jeimer Candelario), and closer (Adbert Alzolay), and a key setup man (Michael Fulmer) on the IL, it’s not like they’re anywhere close to their absolute best.

But it’s been a while since we’ve even sniffed the playoffs as Cubs fans (okay, maybe not by historical Cubs standards, but we’re done with that lovable loser stuff).

The Cubs came nowhere near October baseball in 2022 or 2021. They technically won the division in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, but that barely counts and they immediately lost in the Wild Card round without a single win. The Cubs also missed the playoffs in 2019. And they lost in the Wild Card Game in 2018 (it was just one game back then). The Cubs haven’t even won a playoff GAME since Game 4 of the 2017 NLCS against the Dodgers. It has been a WHILE.

So yeah, I want to see a dang playoff series. I don’t care the Cubs face. I don’t care if it’s on the road. Let’s just give Justin Steele and Kyle Hendricks a chance to do their thing on the biggest stage and see what happens. That’s all I’m asking for.