Cubs vs. Brewers prediction and odds for Monday, July 3
Yesterday, the Milwaukee Brewers took a big step forward as a team. Not only did they maintain the NL Central lead with a series win over the Pittburgh Pirates, but they actually managed a couple of runs off a left-handed pitcher.
Today, the 45-39 Brewers will deal with another lefty in Game 1 of a four-game set with the Chicago Cubs. The 38-44 Cubs will send Drew Smyly to the mound to try and end a 1-6 stretch. The Cubs have slipped to six games out of first place in the division, but as the all-star break approaches it is not out of reach.
Smyly comes into this matchup with a 7-5 record and an ERA of 3.96. Milwaukee will counter with Julio Teheran who was on a tear since joining the team and the rotation until his last start. Teheran is 2-3 in seven starts, but with a 2.85 ERA.
The Brewers took a step forward offensively with three runs off of Rich Hill over five innings, but Hill still struck out eight and three runs against the starter weren’t even enough in that one and they needed to do more damage against the bullpen.
The Brewers are last in team OPS against lefties and have been all year. They check in at .644 and are hitting .215 with a league worst 62 runs driven in.
The Brewers will need more than just three runs of support against the Cubs because Chicago is definitely going to give Smyly the support he needs.
Teheran has great numbers right now in a small sample size, but his performance is a house of cards. He has 25 strikeouts in 41.0 innings with seven home runs allowed. Four of those came in his last time out when he gave up seven runs on seven hits with four homers in 5.2 innings against the Mets. His FIP is up to 5.09 after that performance and his ERA is going to continue to climb.
Teheran hasn’t pitched in the majors consistently since 2020 when he had an ERA over 10 in 10 starts. He’s not all of the sudden going to carry a sub-three in 2023 for the rest of the season.
More blowup starts are coming and I expect another one to come against the Cubs today. Chicago is a slight road favorite this afternoon and for good reason.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change
