Cubs vs. White Sox prediction and odds for Tuesday, July 25 (Clash of Styles)

After winning five of their last six games the Chicago Cubs still have some life in the NL Central, just seven games back of Milwaukee at 48-51. Their crosstown rivals, the Chicago White Sox have lost five of six to fall back to 41-60, 12.5 games behind first place Minnesota in the AL Central. The Cubs need to come out of top of this rivalry much more with their season still hanging in the balance. 

Tonight, in the first of this two-game set, we’ll get a total clash of styles from right-handers on the mound. Kyle Hendricks and his 88-mph fastball will go head-to-head with Michael Kopech who can ramp his heater up to 98. Hendricks is 3-4 with a 3.38 ERA in 11 starts and Kopech is 4-8 with a 4.29 ERA in 18 starts. 

It’s the battle for Chicago and the White Sox are hosting on the South Side. Let’s take a look at the odds. 

Now, Michael Kopech isn’t pumping gas like he was when he was a prospect regularly touching 100 mph and his fastball is actually about two miles per hour slower on average than it was two seasons ago, but he’s still a power-pitcher. Kopech is the much harder thrower, but Hendricks is the much better pitcher. 

This year, Kopech has an expected ERA of 5.42 and has 57 walks in 92.1 innings, that’s fourth percentile. Kopech is also in the bottom one percent of all pitchers in barrel rate, so opposing hitters aren’t fooled very often. His chase rate is 15th percentile. Hendricks on the other hand has a 3.86 xERA and is 97th percentile in walk rate with just 10 in 64.0 innings. Hendricks has a fifth percentile whiff rate, so his stuff isn’t nasty, but an 89th percentile chase rate and 60th percentile barrel rate means he has a PHD in pitching and that goes a lot farther than good stuff in most cases. 

The Cubs are a good team. They’re ninth in run differential at +41 despite being under .500. They still have a run left in them as long as they stay together through the deadline. The White Sox are not a good team, they are 25th in run differential at -76. I feel great about backing the Cubs in this one because of Hendricks and Cody Bellinger who has a 1.270 OPS this month.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change