Twins vs. White Sox prediction and odds for Tuesday, May 2 (Kopech just doesn't have it, and maybe never will)

It’s a good thing that the Chicago White Sox ended April on a high note with a win over the Rays on Sunday. That’s important because they didn’t want to drag their 10-game losing streak into May. Today against their division rivals, the Minnesota Twins will be their first action in May and they enter the month 8-21 which is fourth in the AL Central and somehow only nine games behind the Twins who lead the division at 17-12. 

Though that gap feels insurmountable a sweep in this three-game series would catapult Chicago right back into the division race. In Game 1 at home they’ll hand the ball to Michael Kopech who is 0-3 with a 7.01 ERA. Minnesota will counter with 5-0 Joe Ryan who will come in flaunting a 2.81 ERA following a stellar month of April. 

Even on the road, the Twins are the favorites over their division rival tonight. Let’s take a look at those odds. 

It’s sad when this happens in sports, but Michael Kopech is just not the prince that was promised. He was a top prospect and the most exciting kind, a tall, flame throwing, right-hander who could regularly touch 100. A young pitcher like that gives you visions of a 10 strikeout a game ace power pitcher that can command a rotation, but let’s face it, that’s never going to be Kopech. 

His fastball is still averaging 96 and he throws it 61% of the time, it’s a solid pitch with an even zero run value, but had a -6 run value last season, he’s just never developed anything else in his repertoire. His slider is the only pitch he throws a significant amount of the time, and it currently has an expected slugging percentage of .757 and that’s a fitting number because it can often be seen flying through the sky. 

Kopech is first percentile, which for those who aren’t mathematically inclined is a very bad thing, in expected slugging, barrel percentage, and expected ERA, 9.89, so far this season. Kopech was serviceable the past two years, but I think it’s clear in year four and at 27-years-old that Kopech will never be a top line starter, and if he doesn’t turn things around quickly then he’ll find himself out of a spot in the Chicago rotation. 

The over is 10-4-2 in the last 16 meetings between these teams in Chicago and is 3-0-1 in the White Sox last four home games with a total set at 9.0 or higher. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change