White Sox-Braves prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, July 14

The Atlanta Braves look to start the second half as strong as the closed the first as they welcome the Chicago White Sox to town for a weekend series. First pitch of Friday’s opener is set for 7:20 p.m. ET from Truist Park. Michael Kopech (3-7, 4.08 ERA) will make his return from a shoulder injury for Chicago, while Atlanta counters with veteran righty Charlie Morton (9-3, 3.43).

Unsurprisingly, the Braves enter as massive -265 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the White Sox checking in at +225. The run total is set at 9.5.

White Sox-Braves picks: Friday, July 14

Injury report

White Sox

Day to day: OF Andrew Benintendi (wrist)
Out: RP Liam Hendriks (elbow), SP Mike Clevinger (biceps), RP Joe Kelly (elbow), 3B Yoan Moncada (back), RP Garrett Crochet (shoulder)

Braves

Out: RP Jesse Chavez (shin), SP Max Fried (forearm), RP Dylan Lee (shoulder), SP Kyle Wright (shoulder), OF Ehire Adrianza (shoulder)

Starting pitchers

Michael Kopech vs. Charlie Morton

Kopech had a great run from mid-May to mid-June ... and then his command totally unraveled. The righty walked an astounding 16 batters in 16.1 innings across his last three starts, culminating in a stint on the IL with shoulder fatigue. It’s unclear just how big a part the injury played in Kopech’s control issues, but manager Pedro Grifol more or less admitted as much before the All-Star break, and the team is hoping that with some rest will come improved mechanics. Kopech is basically a two-pitch pitcher so command is crucial: The former first-round pick had put up a 1.72 ERA with 44 strikeouts in 31 innings across five starts from May 19 to June 10, and when he’s consistently elevating his fastball, he’s very tough to hit.

Morton’s been prone to the occasional blow-up start this season, but when he’s on, he’s really on. The 39-year-old ended his first half on a high note, allowing just one run on eight hits across 12 innings against the Miami Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays. His curveball is still as lethal as ever (.167 average against, 41.3% whiff rate), and when he’s keeping his fastball out of the middle of the plate, it lets his secondary stuff sing.

Over/Under pick

A shaky Kopech — who, even if he does manage to fix his command issues, will likely be on something of a pitch count tonight — against this elite Braves offense is a bad, bad combination. I expect Morton to pitch well against a Chicago lineup that’s struggled against righty breaking stuff all year long, but even if the White Sox only manage a couple of runs, I think Atlanta won’t have any trouble carrying us to the over.

Pick: Over 9.5

Moneyline pick

With odds like these, I wish that I could come up with a contrarian argument for backing the White Sox, but I just can’t do it. Kopech is way too shaky, and Morton is just about the worst possible matchup for this Chicago lineup that has the league’s fifth-highest strikeout rate against righties.