Dawson vs Green Prediction, Odds, Props & Best Bets for UFC Vegas 80

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03 October 2023

Dawson vs Green Prediction, Odds, Props & Best Bets for UFC Vegas 80

Sin City plays host to another exciting weekend of MMA action as UFC Vegas 80 takes over the Apex on Saturday, Oct. 7. On a card loaded with 12 huge matchups, the one that sticks out the most is the main event showdown between Grant Dawson and former KOTC Lightweight Champion Bobby Green.

Both fighters need the victory if they hope to eventually challenge for lightweight gold one day. Dawson heads into Saturday’s action as the division’s No. 10-ranked fighter while Green is currently unranked at the moment.

So, which fighter has the better chance to win this weekend?

This article has all of your Dawson vs. Green betting needs covered, ranging from the latest odds and trends to my predictions and best bets for the UFC Vegas 80 main event.

UFC Vegas 80: Dawson vs Green Odds

Moneyline

Grant Dawson (-425)
Bobby Green (+325)

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

Round Total

Over 4.5 Rounds (+170)
Under 4.5 Rounds (-210)

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Dawson vs Green Tale of the Tape

Grant Dawson — Bobby Green

Record: 20-1-1 — 30-14-1 (1NC)
Height: 5’10” — 5’10”
Reach: 72” — 71”
Weight: 155 lbs — 155 lbs
Age: 29 — 37
Fighting Stance: Switch — Orthodox
Knockouts: 4 — 10

UFC Vegas 80: Dawson vs Green Fight Preview

Oddsmakers across the board are in agreement that there’s a heavy favorite in the UFC Vegas 80 main event. BetOnline is currently all in on a Dawson victory, favoring the 29-year-old at -425 moneyline odds — an implied win probability of 80.9%.

It isn’t shocking to see Dawson heavily favored considering that he’s one of the most dominant lightweights today. He’s only lost once over his 22-fight career and has gone 11-0-1 in his last 12 fights, which includes winning the last three in a row.

When it comes to how he secures victories, Dawson’s grappling is his most lethal weapon. “KGD” averages 3.70 takedowns (with 36% accuracy) and 1.5 submissions per 15 minutes, playing a big role in six of his last 10 wins coming via submission.

While Green is a solid wrestler in his own right, he’s not on the same level as Dawson.

Speaking of Green, the 15-year veteran hasn’t been finding much success lately.

The San Bernadino, CA native has been as inconsistent as they come, going 3-4 with a no-contest in his last eight fights. Any time he starts to build some momentum, it winds up being washed away with a losing streak.

Having said that, Green is coming off a win that saw him defeat Tony Ferguson by technical submission in the UFC 291 ‘fight of the night.’ Ferguson might be the fighter he used to be, but the victory was still enough to give Green’s career a boost.

Nevertheless, things are working against Green this weekend. For starters, he’s eight years older than Dawson, putting him at a disadvantage. Secondly, Las Vegas hasn’t been kind to Green either as he’s winless in four straight trips to Sin City, having not won there since September 2020.

If Green starts slow and lets the Vegas atmosphere get it to him, it won’t be a surprise if Dawson is getting his hand raised when all is said and done.

UFC Vegas 80: Dawson vs Green Betting Trends and Markets

With the way the Dawson vs. Green odds are shaping up, there isn’t much value to be had on the moneyline. Fortunately, sportsbooks like BetOnline offer a variety of markets, giving you options when it comes to the UFC Vegas 80 headlining act.

For example, take the method of victory prop market. Here, Dawson is favored to win by points at +130 odds. It makes sense considering that 65% of his career wins came by submission, including two during his three-fight winning streak.

If you’re feeling an upset brewing, Green is most likely to win by KO/TKO or DQ (+500). Although the 37-year-old veteran has 10 career knockout victories to his name, he hasn’t knocked an opponent out since he defeated Al Iaquinta at UFC 268.

Another area that provides value is the method + round combo market. The most likely scenario here is Dawson winning by first-round knockout (+475). At the same time, he’s never picked up a KO/TKO win earlier than the second round.

As for Green, he’s most likely to win by first-round KO/TKO (+1600) — something he’s done eight times throughout his career.

UFC Vegas 80: Dawson vs Green Prediction

I wouldn’t overthink things here; Dawson is the right pick to win. Again, he’s one of the best lightweights on the planet and I don’t see him losing to Green, who’s beyond his prime at this point.

Dawson’s grappling will wear the opposition down until he finds a way to finish things.

Prediction: Grant Dawson

UFC Vegas 80: Dawson vs Green Best Bet

As far as the best bet goes, I’m taking Dawson to win inside the distance (-135). Regardless of how he wins, I see the favorite finishing the job on Saturday. Green just isn’t that good and will only break down the longer the fight goes on.

While Dawson often wins by submission, I can’t ignore that Green has been knocked out twice in his last four fights. The favorite isn’t afraid to use his strikes when the situation calls for it, meaning I give Dawson the same odds of winning this fight by KO/TKO as I do submission.