Fiziev vs Gamrot Prediction, Odds & Best Bets for UFC Vegas 79

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19 September 2023

Fiziev vs Gamrot Prediction, Odds & Best Bets for UFC Vegas 79

UFC Vegas 79 takes place this Saturday at the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. In a week where Betting News, our next stop is the lightweight main event between Rafael Fiziev and Mateusz Gamrot.

This matchup is a massive one between two top-10 lightweights. Fiziev finds himself as the No. 6-ranked fighter in the division while Gamrot is right there at No. 7. How will the standings look after this weekend’s collision?

This article is here to help you with all of your Fiziev vs. Gamrot betting needs ahead of UFC Vegas 79. So, strap in and enjoy the ride as we look at the main event’s latest odds, as well as my prediction and best bets for the fight.

UFC Vegas 79: Fiziev vs Gamrot Odds

Moneyline

Rafael Fiziev (-146)
Mateusz Gamrot (+126)

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

Round Total

Over 4.5 Rounds (-105)
Under 4.5 Rounds (-125)

Fiziev vs Gamrot Tale of the Tape

Rafael Fiziev — Mateusz Gamrot

Record: 12-2 — 22-2 (1NC)
Height: 5’8” — 5’10”
Reach: 71” — 70”
Weight: 155 lbs — 155 lbs
Age: 30 — 32
Fighting Stance: Switch — Southpaw
Knockouts: 8 — 7

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UFC Vegas 79: Fiziev vs Gamrot Fight Preview

Oddsmakers are expecting the upcoming Fiziev vs. Gamrot showdown to be a close one. Fiziev is BetOnline’s slight favorite at -146 moneyline odds, which carries an implied win probability of only 59.4%.

After losing to Magomed Mustafaev in his UFC debut, Fiziev immediately turned things around. He went on to win six consecutive fights, featuring knockout victories over the likes of Renato Moicano, Brad Riddell, and Rafael dos Anjos, earning ‘performance of the night honors in each of those outings.

Unfortunately, “Ataman’s” winning streak came to an end earlier this year. The 30-year-old couldn’t get the job done against Justin Gaethje, losing via majority decision in what was deemed the ‘fight of the night.’

At the same time, it’s important not to forget that Gamrot is a dominant force, too. After all, he’s only lost two of 25 career fights and owns a solid 5-2 record since joining the UFC.

After finishing three consecutive opponents (2 via KO/TKO, 1 via submission), Gamrot has gone the distance in each of his last three fights. He emerged victorious from two of those bouts, including when he most recently beat Jalin Turner by split decision in March.

Gamrot has a clear-cut edge when it comes to grappling as well. He averages a whopping 4.54 takedowns per minute whereas Fiziev only averages 0.31. Having said that, both men boast 90% takedown defense, leaving time to tell who breaks first.

When it comes to striking, Fiziev lands more significant shots per minute (5.06) than his opponent (3.03). At the same time, Gamrot absorbs fewer significant strikes per minute (3.23 vs. 5.17) with much better defense (60% vs. 48%).

Either way, it looks like fans of both fighters can expect a competitive bout this Saturday.

UFC Vegas 79: Fiziev vs Gamrot Betting Trends and Markets

With the Fiziev vs. Gamrot moneyline odds being favorable on both sides, there isn’t anything wrong with an outright bet. At the same time, sportsbooks like BetOnline offer a variety of prop markets that help shed light on the fight.

For example, the sportsbook predicts that we’ll see a finish this weekend, favoring that the fight won’t go the distance at -140 odds. Considering how Fiziev and Gamrot have 21 finishes in 39 combined fights, it isn’t too surprising.

Having said that, Fiziev winning by KO/TKO is the likeliest method of victory (+150). He holds eight career knockout victories to his name on top of winning three of his last five outings via KO.

If Gamrot pulls off the upset, he’s most likely to win by points (+285). He’s gone the distance in 12 of his 25 all-time outings, emerging victorious in 10 of those scenarios.

If you’re trying to pinpoint when this fight ends, Fiziev is favored to win via first-round KO/TKO (+450). Five of his previous eight knockout wins occurred in the opening frame, however, only one of those victories took place in the UFC.

UFC Vegas 79: Fiziev vs Gamrot Prediction

In what should be a back-and-forth bout, I’m taking Gamrot to win. The underdog has the edge in a few crucial areas, especially when it comes to striking defense and grappling. He’ll be able to handle whatever Fiziev throws at him.

A longer fight also suits Gamrot, who’s demonstrated strong cardio with five of his last eight fights going the distance. It won’t be easy to pull off, but take “Gamer” to win.

Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot

UFC Vegas 79: Fiziev vs Gamrot Best Bet

As for the best Fiziev vs. Gamrot bet, I have my eyes on a couple of options. For starters, I’m taking Gamrot winning via points (+285). Fiziev is good at avoiding getting finished while a longer fight suits the underdog, meaning winning via decision is his best path to victory.

However, if you think that Fiziev wins, I have no issue with backing the fight to go the distance (+110). The two lightweights have 14 UFC fights between them and nine of those outings reached the time limit. It’s safe to say that’s a real possibility this weekend.