Del Mar Saturday Picks, Analysis: Graded Stakes Pair Featured

The quality summer racing from Del Mar continues Saturday. The track features a Grade 3 on dirt and the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon Handicap on Turf.

Betting on the Turf

Turf racing represents a different challenge for handicappers. Dirt races are frequently dominated by front runners. The race shape tends to be quick in the early stages with the horses decelerating to the finish.

On turf the race often takes on the opposite race shape. The earliest parts of the race are more about finding position rather than trying to set the pace. It is not uncommon to see the best turf runners produce a great turn of foot coming off the final turn and running down the front runners. Incredibly this late kick can often be seen even when the pace is rather pedestrian.

Factors to Consider

Given the unique challenges of turf racing, horseplayers adept at dirt racing need to recalibrate for these turf events. Here are some key factors to look for in turf races.

Pace

“Pace makes the race” may be the most common axiom uttered among frequent punters. However, in turf racing players who ignore the pace dynamic are doomed to a pile of losing tickets.

The margin of victory in turf contests is often much smaller than in dirt races at the same distance. Understanding which horses will find good ground saving trips under cover, can give a player major insight into who may be able to get out and close down the stretch.

It may not seem like much but saving even a few feet can make all the difference.

Breeding and Class

Pedigree is a massive industry in the sport of horse racing, and while its impact can sometimes be overemphasized, it can be a vital signal to a horse’s success on turf. Ironically one of the hottest turf sires right now is American Pharaoh who never actually stepped foot on the surface himself.

Along with having good turf bloodlines, players should also be mindful of class for horses who have run on the turf before. Betting News offers class ratings on each and every horse in a race and sometimes just a little edge in class can be the thing that sustains the late kick of a horse.

Jockeys Matter

Pace matters, but with that comes “the trip.” A horse with good closing kick can get the perfect pace to run at, but if they get stuck in traffic they may not be able to unleash their winning move.

Horses will often bunch up entering the stretch. This requires the horses in the garden spot behind the leaders to tip out and find space toward the center of the track. However, with other horses looking to do the same, it is not uncommon to see horses tied up in traffic.

An experience jockey that knows how to ride the turf can be a huge advantage to finding the trips and avoiding these protentional traffic troubles. At Del Mar this includes the likes of Juan Hernandez and Joe Bravo.

Full Card Analysis

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club- 1

Post: 2:00 PM PT; $83k Allowance Optional Claiming going 1 m on turf; Entries: 6

• #1 FREE AND HUMBLE (9-5) is the top choice, positioned in the second tier of runners, looking for a well-timed run at the leaders, making her the class of the field.
• #6 LUMINIFEROUS (4-1) presents a significant threat, aiming to break loose on the front end.
• #5 FIRSTTIMEINFOREVER (5-2) is a strong contender, showcasing a late rolling ability and a strong closing kick.
• #2 IPANEMA PRINCESS (8-1) is a solid option for underneath on most tickets, based on speed figures.

Selections: 1 – 6 – 5 – 2

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club- 2

Post: 2:35 PM PT; $53k Claiming going 1 m on dirt; Entries: 8

• #7 MASTERING (8-5) is the top pick, handling the distance well with a fair pace scenario.
• #1 DIRECT LINE (6-1) is a competitive option, supported by the combination of Eurton and Rispoli.
• #2 REDLINE (6-1) is another competitive choice with no trouble expected at this distance.
• #8 CYBERVIKING (4-1) is a strong contender with tactical speed, poised to sit just off the leaders.

Selections: 7 – 1 – 2 – 8

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club- 3

Post: 3:08 PM PT; $82k Maiden Special Weight going 1 1/16 m on turf; Entries: 9

• #1 IRISH ROSE (4-1) stands out as the best pick, displaying tactical speed and pedigree to be a major player.
• #6 SAKURA FLAVOR (5-1) is a significant contender, a late roller with a strong closing kick, and appears to be the class of the field.
• #4 STRIKINGLY (15-1) is a price horse, competitive and not expected to have trouble with the distance, possibly breaking loose on the front end.
• #8 LA PEER (5-1) holds a chance in this race, making sense based on speed figures and aiming for a well-timed run at the leaders.

Selections: 1 – 6 – 4 – 8

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club- 4

Post: 3:45 PM PT; $83k Allowance Optional Claiming going 1 m on dirt; Entries: 8

• #7 LOW EXPECTATIONS (4-1) is the top selection, showing solidity in recent starts and ready for a strong performance, handling these conditions well in previous outings.
• #8 SIR LONDON (5-2) is a strong contender, making sense based on speed figures and proven ability in similar conditions.
• #2 EVER A REBEL (3-1) is another major player, positioned in the first flight of runners, with a chance to shine late.
• #6 FAST DRAW MUNNINGS (5-1) is competitive in this spot, fitting well enough.

Selections: 7 – 8 – 2 – 6

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club- 5

Post: 4:15 PM PT; $82k Maiden Special Weight going 6 f on dirt; Entries: 9

• #2 BORNTOSTAYTHIRSTY (5-1) is the top choice, displaying consistent pace figures for a moderately paced race.
• #8 LIGHTING AND REIGN (20-1) is a price horse, competitive in this spot and fitting well enough.
• #5 HOT DANZING (4-1) is a debutant, a fringe contender under the combination of Sise and Hernandez.
• #7 SAFA (7-2) should improve off the first start, showcasing solid recent form, and ready for a significant performance.

Selections: 2 – 8 – 5 – 7

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club- 6

Post: 4:45 PM PT; $200k Sorrento S. presented by Keeneland Sales going 6 f on dirt; Entries: 8

• #3 DUA (5-2) is the top pick, showing potential for improvement and the best overall power rating, with races capable of beating this group.
• #2 DREAMFYRE (3-1) appears to be a major player, likely leading or near the front, and has handled similar conditions well before.
• #7 UR IN TROUBLE (6-1) should improve off the first start and competitive in this spot, entering the race in excellent form.
• #1 FEISTY MITOLE (8-1) should improve off the first start, considered a fringe contender, with previous experience in these conditions and races good enough to challenge.

Selections: 3 – 2 – 7 – 1

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club- 7

Post: 5:15 PM PT; $84k Allowance Optional Claiming going 5 f on turf; Entries: 9

• #5 CARMEN MIRANDA (7-2) is the top selection as a classy runner with the highest overall power rating.
• #3 HOTITUDE (8-1) is competitive in this spot, positioned in the first flight of runners and considered the class of the field.
• #4 STRESSED (4-1) is a reasonable choice based on speed figures, fitting well in this contest.
• #8 RUNNINWITHTHEBOYZ (5-2) enters the race in excellent form and should handle the distance well.

Selections: 5 – 3 – 4 – 8

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club- 8

Post: 5:45 PM PT; $82k Maiden Special Weight going 5 1/2 f on dirt; Entries: 8

• #4 I WIN AGAIN (5-1) is the top pick, showing potential for improvement, with races capable of beating this group, and solid recent performances.
• #8 PASTOR T (8-5) debuts here and is a fringe contender, deserving respect under the combination of Baffert and Hernandez.
• #6 POINT DUME (5-2) debuts here and is a suitable option for underneath on most tickets.
• #3 ARIO (8-1) debuts here and likely competing for the minor placings.

Selections: 4 – 8 – 6 – 3

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club- 9

Post: 6:15 PM PT; $250k Yellow Ribbon H. going 1 1/16 m on turf; Entries: 7

• #1 CLOSING REMARKS (5-2) is the top choice, earning respect under the combination of Gaines and Rispoli, with the highest overall power rating.
• #4 SCHOOL DANCE (3-1) is competitive in this spot, capable of beating this group and potentially benefiting from a hot pace up front.
• #3 SPIRIT AND GLORY (6-1) is another contender, making sense based on speed figures and showing solid recent form.
• #2 TURNERLOOSE (8-1) is a fringe contender, capable of challenging with tactical speed and a stalk and pounce trip.

Selections: 1 – 4 – 3 – 2

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club- 10

Post: 6:45 PM PT; $30k Claiming going 5 1/2 f on dirt; Entries: 15

• #4 BAG’S GOLD (8-1) is the top selection, with no trouble expected at the distance.
• #6 WARRIOR ROAD (6-1) is a major player in this race, capable of beating this group and handling these conditions well in previous starts.
• #1 SIR FLATTER (12-1) is a price horse and appears to be a significant contender, positioned for a fair pace scenario and respected under Valenzuela and Pereira.
• #11 CATHEDRAL LIGHT (6-1) is another major player, projected to sit mid-pack and make a strong late run, with the highest overall power rating in the group.

Selections: 4 – 6 – 1 – 11

Betting News has your weekend covered with full analysis off all the big races on Saturday. Check out our coverage of the Minnesota Oaks and Derby (Canterbury Park), the Grade 1 Beverly D and Arlington Million (Colonial Downs), and the Grade 1 Fourstardave (Saratoga).

Both the Beverly D and the Fourstardave are “Win and You’re In” for the Breeders’ Cup world championships at years end.