Del Mar Sunday: Grade 3 La Jolla Stakes Analysis

Del Mar will be running the Grade 3 La Jolla on Sunday. The current meet has had full fields and been a gold mine for longshot lovers.

Finding Longshots

The Del Mar Thoroughbred Meet has been a playground for bettors seeking high-value payouts and thrilling upsets. With big fields and an abundance of long shots, the excitement of wagering on underdogs has captured the hearts of fans and fill the pockets of bettors.

Here are some tips to unearthing those hidden gems and finding longshots that could potentially turn small wagers into big wins.

Thoroughly Study the Form

The first step to identifying potential longshots is to delve deep into the past performance of each horse in the race. Analyzing their recent form can reveal valuable insights into their capabilities and current condition.

Look for horses that have shown flashes of promise in recent races but haven’t managed to secure a win. These horses may be on the verge of a breakthrough and could offer excellent value as longshot bets.

Pay Attention to Trainer and Jockey Trends

The impact of trainers and jockeys on a horse’s performance cannot be underestimated. Experienced trainers and skilled jockeys often bring out the best in their charges, even at longer odds.

Pay attention to trainers with a history of success at the Del Mar Meet and jockeys who have a knack for riding underdogs to victory. They may hold the key to identifying potential longshot winners.

Assess Class Drops and Equipment Changes

A horse moving down in class from a higher level of competition may find the current field more manageable, giving them a better chance to shine.

Similarly, equipment changes, such as blinkers or tongue ties, could improve a horse’s focus and performance. Keep an eye on these factors, as they might signal an impending surprise from a longshot contender.

Watch for Distance and Surface Specialists

Some horses have a preference for specific distances or surfaces. A horse may not have performed well in recent races, but if it is returning to its preferred distance or surface, it could have a much better chance of outrunning its odds.

Identifying horses that have a strong track record in similar conditions can lead to discovering lucrative longshot opportunities.

Evaluate Workout Patterns

Workouts can offer valuable insights into a horse’s fitness and readiness for the race. Regular and impressive workouts leading up to the event may indicate that a horse is in peak form and could be a competitive longshot contender.

Conversely, erratic or lackluster workouts may be a sign to be cautious about placing a bet on that particular horse.

Utilize Handicapping Tools

In today’s digital age, there are numerous handicapping tools and data analysis platforms available to assist bettors in making informed decisions.

These tools provide comprehensive statistics, trends, and expert analysis that can aid in identifying potential longshots with a higher probability of success.

Sunday Full Card Analysis

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club- 1

Post: 2:00 PM PT; $82k Maiden Special Weight going 5 f on turf; Entries: 10

• The top selection is #5 DON’T BRING CRAZY (20-1), a price horse who has proven her ability to handle these conditions in previous starts.
• #9 ELLIE MOORE (8-5) is another contender who should improve off her first start and could be in with a shot in this race. She has also proven her ability to handle these conditions in previous starts and comes with the backing of D’Amato and Rispoli.
• #4 DOUBLE BAY (8-1) is making her debut here and carries hope for a strong performance, given her pedigree and potential as a major player in this spot.
• #2 PACIFIC ROSE (5-1) is also making her debut and seems to be running for the minor placings in this contest, with a pedigree that suggests she might be a significant factor in this race.

Selections: 5 – 9 – 4 – 2

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club- 2

Post: 2:34 PM PT; $25k Claiming going 6 1/2 f on dirt; Entries: 13

• #12 SCARY FAST SMILE (12-1) is the top pick, and despite the odds, she shouldn’t have trouble with the distance. Her recent performances have been solid, and she appears ready to put up a big effort.
• #3 JALEN JOURNEY (5-1) is expected to be competitive in this spot based on his speed figures, and he might benefit from a hot pace up front.
• #13 SECRET TOUCH (6-1) also looks competitive on speed figures and should be in the mix for this race.
• As for #7 DR. TROUTMAN (6-1), he’s considered a fringe contender in this race, likely to be part of the early pace, and may fit well enough here.

Selections: 12 – 3 – 13 – 7

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club- 3

Post: 3:07 PM PT; $82k Maiden Special Weight going 5 f on turf; Entries: 14

• #1 BAJAN BASHERT (4-1) looks best in this race, running evenly and expecting a favorable pace scenario. She has also proven her ability to handle these conditions in previous starts.
• #13 GRAZEN TOUCH (5-1) appears to be a major player in this race and might be the class of the field.
• #12 SCARY FAST RIDE (15-1) is another price horse that seems to be a major player. Her recent performances have been solid, indicating she might be ready to run a big race.
• #10 JESSEBEAR (6-1) should be competitive and is among the contenders for this event.

Selections: 1 – 13 – 12 – 10

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club- 4

Post: 3:39 PM PT; $83k Allowance Optional Claiming going 1 m on dirt; Entries: 7

• #4 MICRO SHARE (8-5) gets the top selection, as she makes sense on speed figures and carries the top overall power rating in the group.
• #5 TROUVILLE (8-1) appears to be a major player in this race and could benefit from the right setup.
• #2 KUORA (3-1) should be in with a shot, given her good enough races to beat this group. She might also benefit from a hot pace up front.
• #6 MAGAZINE (5-1) should also be considered a contender, expected to be part of the early pace.

Selections: 4 – 5 – 2 – 6

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club- 5

Post: 4:09 PM PT; $82k Maiden Special Weight going 6 f on dirt; Entries: 9

• #4 NOTHING LIKE YOU (5-2) debuts here and is the top pick. She deserves respect, going out for the combination of Baffert and Rispoli, and with a well-bred pedigree for this spot.
• #1 BOSSY BRUIN GAL (4-1) should improve off her first start and is likely to be competitive in this race. She could be a dangerous threat to get loose on the front end, having previously proven her ability to handle these conditions.
• #5 AUTUMN CHILL (8-1) should also improve off her first start and be competitive. Her previous races indicate she has the capability to beat this group.
• #2 CANDY AISLE (12-1) is a price horse who should be competitive in this spot and has the pedigree to be a major player.

Selections: 4 – 1 – 5 – 2

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club- 6

Post: 4:39 PM PT; $51k Claiming going 5 f on turf; Entries: 14

• #14 CHASIN MUNNY (6-1) looks best here, possessing tactical speed and capable of sitting just off the leaders for a stalk and pounce trip. She has been solid in recent starts, suggesting she might be ready to run a big race.
• #1 MY SUMMER DREAM (6-1) is considered a major player and has proven her ability to handle these conditions in previous starts.
• #9 HOT BOX (4-1) is a fringe contender and should be part of the early pace, having previously shown her ability to handle these conditions.
• #8 BARRISTAN THE BOLD (4-1) is another fringe contender, looking to make one well-timed run at the leaders, which might be facilitated by a hot pace up front.

Selections: 14 – 1 – 9 – 8

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club- 7

Post: 5:09 PM PT; $82k Maiden Special Weight going 6 f on dirt; Entries: 11

• #9 CAROL’S COMIC (10-1) is a price horse and gets the top selection. He looks to be the class of the field and has the pedigree to be a major player in this spot.
• #6 DRIVER’S ED (4-1) is expected to improve off his first start and appears to be a major player in this race, given his recent solid performances.
• #1 CALIFORNIA TIGER (5-2) is another major player, capable of sitting in the second tier of runners and making a well-timed run at the leaders.
• #4 LOGON TO WIN (6-1) should be competitive and is a good bet to hit the board in this type of race, boasting a pedigree that suggests being a major player in this spot.

Selections: 9 – 6 – 1 – 4

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club- 8

Post: 5:39 PM PT; $82k Allowance Optional Claiming going 5 f on turf; Entries: 14

• #2 DON’T JU FORGET (3-1) is the top pick. She has races good enough to beat this group and might benefit from a hot pace up front.
• #14 STAY AND SCAM (7-2) appears to be a major player in this race, with performances that are good enough to challenge this group.
• #10 FLAME MCGOON (6-1) should be competitive and has races good enough to beat this group. She’s likely to be in the first flight of runners, with a chance to make an impact late.
• #5 BIG SIS LITTLE SIS (4-1) is also competitive and comes with the backing of the France barn and Espinoza as the jockey. Her recent performances have been solid, indicating she might be ready to run a big race.

Selections: 2 – 14 – 10 – 5

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club- 9

Post: 6:09 PM PT; $125k California Thoroughbred Breeders’ Association S. going 5 1/2 f on dirt; Entries: 8

• #2 GRAND SLAM SMILE (5-2) looks best here, running evenly and expecting a fair pace scenario. She has to be respected, going out for the combination of Specht and Alvarado.
• #3 PUSHINESS (8-5) is expected to improve off her first start and should be competitive in this spot, having the backing of Mccarthy and Rispoli.
• #7 CRAZY HOT (3-1) is a dangerous threat in this race, coming in with excellent form. She runs evenly and expects a very fair pace scenario.
• #1 FLY A FANTASY (8-1) should improve off her first start and may be running for the minor placings in this contest, running evenly and expecting a very fair pace scenario.

Selections: 2 – 3 – 7 – 1

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club- 10

Post: 6:39 PM PT; $150k La Jolla H. going 1 1/16 m on turf; Entries: 8

• #3 MALTESE FALCON (5-2) gets the top selection, as he has races good enough to beat this group, although he might need to do some work in the lane to get up with a competitive run.
• #2 AGENCY (4-1) is considered a major player in this race and shouldn’t have trouble with the distance.
• #6 KID AZTECA (20-1) is a price horse who should be competitive and appears to be the class of the field. He’ll be rolling late with a good closing kick, making him a potential contender.
• #4 JUSTIN’S LEGACY (12-1) is another price horse who could be in with a shot, given his proven ability to handle these conditions in previous starts.

Selections: 3 – 2 – 6 – 4

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club- 11

Post: 7:09 PM PT; $30k Maiden Claiming going 7 f on dirt; Entries: 14

• #12 THE KEY IS UNITY (4-1) is the top pick, looking to be the class of the field and having proven her ability to handle these conditions in previous starts.
• #7 HARD TIMES (5-1) is considered a fringe contender in this spot, but he has proven his ability to handle these conditions in previous starts and comes into the race in good form.
• #9 MT. ZEROR (7-2) is also considered a fringe contender and has races good enough to challenge this group. He could be a dangerous threat to get loose on the front end.
• #3 SNAPP DADDY (4-1) is another fringe contender who has been solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big race. He seems to fit well enough in this contest.