Churchill Downs Returns: October 29 Full Card Analysis, Picks

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28 October 2023

Churchill Downs Returns: October 29 Full Card Analysis, Picks

Churchill Downs returns on Sunday. The card features the Street Sense and the Rags to Riches Stakes races. However, all eyes will be on equine safety.

Earlier this year the host track of the Kentucky Derby was forced to move their meet to neighboring Ellis Park after a string of horse fatalities. An investigation of the track was conducted and it was deemed that the surface was once again safe to race over.

Full Card Analysis

Churchill Downs- 1

Post: 1:00 PM ET; $92k Maiden Special Weight spanning 6 1/2 f on dirt; Entries: 16

10 RUN JALEN RUN (7-2) should improve in this event and is the top choice. No difficulty with the distance is likely. This contender runs evenly and likely expects a very fair pace scenario.
5 LUCKY JEREMY (10-1) is a major player in this race, displaying convincing speed figures. This contender runs evenly and is likely to get a very fair pace scenario.
6 BOURBON BOSS (3-1) is competitive in this field, running evenly and likely expects a very fair pace scenario. This contender has proven ability in handling these conditions.
11 SPIN THE BOULEVARD (8-1) should improve and contends as a fringe contender in this spot. Likely to run evenly and is likely to get a very fair pace scenario.

Selections: 10 – 5 – 6 – 11

Churchill Downs- 2

Post: 1:30 PM ET; $120k Maiden Special Weight spanning 6 f on dirt; Entries: 11

4 ORANGE DIABLO (5-2) is likely to improve and is the top pick. Exhibiting tactical speed, this contender is likely to sit just off the leaders for a stalk and pounce trip. Commands respect going out under Cox and Geroux.
1 LINZER (3-1) is competitive in this race and is the class of the field. This contender has proven ability in handling these conditions.
7 BYE BYE LIAM (15-1) emerges as a contender at a price. Likely to run evenly and likely to get a very fair pace scenario. Well-bred for this event.
10 OZONE (5-1) is a recommended inclusion in various ticket combinations. No trouble is likely with the distance.

Selections: 4 – 1 – 7 – 10

Churchill Downs- 3

Post: 2:00 PM ET; $120k Maiden Special Weight over 6 f on dirt; Entries: 16

9 CLEAR VOICE (5-1) is poised for improvement and leads as the strongest choice. Consistent recent performances predict a robust display. A major player in this spot based on pedigree.
7 MUGEN (9-2) emerges as a significant contender based on speed figures. No trouble is likely with the distance.
10 CHILLED (8-1) is likely to improve and be competitive. This contender shouldn’t have trouble with the distance. Recent solid runs set the stage for a strong performance.
8 TANYA SHOWERS (12-1) emerges as a contender deserving of respect at a price. Recent strong performances guided by Hartman and Arrieta demand attention.

Selections: 9 – 7 – 10 – 8

Churchill Downs- 4

Post: 2:30 PM ET; $120k Maiden Special Weight spanning 1 1/16 m on turf; Entries: 16

13 LUZ DIVINA (2-1) gets the top selection. This contender has proven to handle these conditions previously. No trouble is likely with the distance.
9 TURINO (7-2) emerges as a major contender based on speed figures. This contender runs evenly and likely expects a very fair pace scenario.
8 I’M A MESS (9-2) is likely to be competitive in this spot, going out for the Mcpeek barn and ridden by Hernandez.
12 TOASTED ROLL (8-1) could be in with a shot in this race, representing the Sharp barn and ridden by Gaffalione.

Selections: 13 – 9 – 8 – 12

Churchill Downs- 5

Post: 3:01 PM ET; $120k Maiden Special Weight over 1 m on dirt; Entries: 13

2 TRACK PHANTOM (6-1) is likely to improve and is the top pick. Exhibits performances capable of challenging this group. Consistent pace figures suitable for a moderately paced race.
4 REAL MEN VIOLIN (4-1) is set to be competitive in this race, appearing to be the class of the field. Likely to sit in the second tier and execute a well-timed run.
10 MO’ SPRESSO (6-1) is likely to improve and be competitive based on speed figures. Recent solid performances set the stage for a significant run.
11 TOP GUN ROCKET (5-1) is likely to improve and contends to be competitive. Likely to run evenly and benefit from a fair pace scenario.

Selections: 2 – 4 – 10 – 11

Churchill Downs- 6

Post: 3:31 PM ET; $127k Allowance Optional Claiming over 6 1/2 f on dirt; Entries: 11

9 OUR KEEPSAKE (12-1) stands out as a prime choice among the entries, arriving in excellent form and capable of managing these conditions based on prior starts.
6 SHARP TUNE (9-2) is anticipated to be a significant player in this race, showing consistency in recent performances and ready for a noteworthy run.
8 ZADORSKY (8-1) is likely to be competitive and likely to be in the first flight of runners. Consistent pace figures provide promise in a moderately paced race.
4 DONE ENOUGH (15-1) remains competitive in this field, holding races good enough to challenge this group.

Selections: 9 – 6 – 8 – 4

Churchill Downs- 7

Post: 4:01 PM ET; $120k Maiden Special Weight over 1 m on turf; Entries: 16

6 SNEAD (3-1) claims the top selection, displaying races competitive enough to challenge this group. A strong late run is likely to be effective.
4 NUMERO SIETE (4-1) is projected to improve and contends as a major player in this race. Competitive races hold promise for this contender’s performance.
11 CREEK (8-1) is likely to be competitive, projecting to make one late run.
10 PHENOMENAL DREAM (15-1) is a fringe contender, rallying late based on speed figures and offering a competitive run.

Selections: 6 – 4 – 11 – 10

Churchill Downs- 8

Post: 4:33 PM ET; $200k Rags to Riches S. over 1 1/16 m on dirt; Entries: 7

3 V V’S DREAM (6-5) secures the top spot, entering the race in exceptional form. Likely to make a well-timed move from the second tier of runners.
5 SHIMMERING ALLURE (6-1) is considered a fringe contender, displaying the capability to handle these conditions in previous races.
6 TWIRLING GOOD TIME (4-1) is likely to improve and contends as a fringe contender. Tactical speed is likely to aid in a well-timed race.
4 WEST SUNSET (8-1) is likely to improve and deserves attention based on speed figures. The combination of Cox and Prat adds credibility.

Selections: 3 – 5 – 6 – 4

Churchill Downs- 9

Post: 5:05 PM ET; $127k Allowance Optional Claiming over 7 f on dirt; Entries: 13

13 MOLLY’S TOWN (7-2) looks the strongest contender, exhibiting tactical speed and the class of the field.
1 JUST STEEL (3-1) emerges as a major player, holding performances good enough to challenge this group effectively and managing the distance well.
9 GROUP TICKET (30-1) is a recommended inclusion in ticket combinations, maintaining an even running style and handling the distance well.
8 SPONGE BATH (8-1) is another recommended inclusion, set for a competitive performance in a fair-paced scenario.

Selections: 13 – 1 – 9 – 8

Churchill Downs- 10

Post: 5:35 PM ET; $200k Street Sense S. over 1 1/16 m on dirt; Entries: 8

3 NORTHERN FLAME (4-1) secures the top selection. Exhibits performances competitive enough to challenge this group effectively.
1 GENEROUS TIPPER (7-2) emerges as a significant player, with consistent pace figures suitable for a moderately paced race.
4 MOONLIGHT (5-2) contends as a major player, displaying tactical speed and a strategy for a well-timed run.
8 LIBERAL ARTS (8-1) is likely to be competitive, considering the speed figures.

Selections: 3 – 1 – 4 – 8

Churchill Downs- 11

Post: 6:05 PM ET; $120k Maiden Special Weight over 1 m on dirt; Entries: 16

16 BANG BANG FURY (5-1) is anticipated to improve and stands as the top pick. Capable of challenging this group effectively.
13 WEST OMAHA (5-1) is a major player, handling these conditions in previous starts and guided by Cox and Geroux.
11 LADY MOSCATO (7-2) is the expected class of the field, displaying competence in these conditions and representing a strong force.
14 PARADISE LANE (4-1) is a contender under the Mott barn and Alvarado in the irons, with promising breeding for this race.

Selections: 16 – 13 – 11 – 14