Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Prediction, Preview, and Odds
The Denver Nuggets (45-20, 29-35-1 ATS, 25-39-1 O/U) take on the Miami Heat (35-29, 31-32-1 ATS, 24-40 O/U) in an inter-conference showdown on Wednesday evening. The Nuggets posted a home win against the Raptors on Monday. The Heat were hit with a home loss by the Wizards. The Nuggets posted a 103-97 home win against the Heat last month.
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Nuggets Begin Road Trek
The Denver Nuggets are opening a four-game road trip in this one. Denver continues to shine, winning nine of its last ten games propelled by the stifling defense. The Nuggets beat the Jazz on Saturday and were mammoth 18-point favorites in a 125-119 home win against the Raptors on Monday night. Denver is only 0.5 games back of Oklahoma City atop the division and stands third in the conference. The Nuggets have covered the spread in three of their last five games.
Nikola Jokic continues to dazzle, sinking over 30 points in threes of his last five games. The 29-year-old center recorded 35 points on Tuesday and has delivered an average of 26.2 PPG and 12.3 RPG on the year. He scored 18 points in the meeting against the Heat. Jamal Murray also consistently produces, netting 20 or more points in four of his last five clashes. The 27-year-old point guard has increased his season average to 21.2 PPG on 48% shooting. Michael Porter Jr. scored a solid 19 points in the win on Monday. The 25-year-old small forward has issued an average of 16.6 PPG.
— Denver Nuggets (@nuggets) March 12, 2024
Denver stands at 3-2 in their last five road bouts, covering the spread in three games in that span. This includes a loss to the Bucks and a win against the Warriors. Denver has scored at least 124 points in three of their last five games and is averaging 115 points on the season, ranking them 15th. They are conceding an average of 110.7 points, placing them seventh.
Heat Dealt Surprising Home Loss
The Miami Heat are targeting first place in the Southeast Division. Miami stands 1.5 games back of the Magic. They have been a streaky team this season. They have dropped three consecutive games including a road loss to the Thunder on Friday. The squad was marked as huge 11.5-point favorites in a disappointing 110-108 home loss against the Wizards on Sunday. The Heat have covered the spread in only one of their last five games.
Jimmy Butler is producing, recording at least 20 points in four of his last five games. The veteran small forward collected 23 points against the Wizards on Sunday and is sporting an average of 21.7 PPG and 5.5 RPG. Bam Adebayo has been subpar recently, shooting below 40% in two of his last three games. The 26-year-old center is having another outstanding season, producing an average of 19.9 PPG and 10 RPG. He scored 22 points against the Nuggets last month. Terry Rozier has been decent, shooting above 50% in three of his last five games. The 29-year-old shooting guard is posting an average of 20.2 PPG.
— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) March 10, 2024
Miami is 3-2 in their last five home decisions, covering on two occasions in that span. This includes wins against the Jazz and Pistons. Miami is averaging 110.5 points on the season, pegging them 28th. The defense has been solid. They have conceded 114 or fewer points in four of their last five games and are holding opponents to 109.9 points, good for fifth.
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Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
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The Denver Nuggets continue to dominate, winning nine of their last ten games including a win against this Heat squad and a victory against the Celtics. The Miami Heat remain inconsistent and have dropped three consecutive games including a home loss against the Wizards.
Furthermore, the Nuggets are averaging 117.8 points per 100 possessions compared to only 113.4 per 100 by the Heat. The Nuggets are playing outstanding defense, conceding an average of only 116 points in their last five bouts. This is key as the Heat are struggling to generate offense, scoring 108 or fewer points in three consecutive games. Each of the Nuggets' last five road wins has occurred by at least five points.
Prediction: Denver Nuggets -3
Full-Game Total Pick
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I expect scoring to be at a premium. These squads played in a 103-97 decision last month in which the under cashed by 15 points. The Nuggets are 27th in pace while the Heat are 28th. The Nuggets have allowed 114 or fewer points in four of their last five road clashes.
In addition, Miami does not score many points. They only managed 108 points against the worst defense team in the NBA in the Wizards in their previous game. Also, the Heat are playing great defense, conceding less than 115 points in four of their last five games. They were able to contain Jokic in the meeting last month. The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these rivals.
Prediction: Under 217.5
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