Derek Carr given +1100 odds to be Patriots starting QB next season

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What happened in Vegas assured that Derek Carr wouldn’t be staying in Vegas. Benched for the last two games of the 2022 NFL season by Las Vegas Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels, the handwriting was on the wall that Carr’s NFL career would be continuing elsewhere.

Is he heading to Foxboro to quarterback the New England Patriots next season? That would seem to be a long shot at best.

Certainly that’s the way oddsmakers are viewing the situation. When a prop bet first opened up late last week at DraftKings Sportsbook projecting Carr’s 2023 NFL destination, the Patriots were the fourth choice in this betting line at odds of +800. That betting line has since lengthened to +1100. New England has slumped to the seventh betting choice in this market.

Would there be interest on New England’s end in bringing Carr into the fold? Again, that seems an unlikely scenario. Curiously enough, you can currently get shorter odds on Tom Brady being New England’s QB next season than the line on Carr. In a separate prop at DraftKings, it’s +750 that the Patriots will be Brady’s 2023 NFL team.

There are quarterbacks who are winners, and then there are QBs who pile up the stats but never look like they’re about to accomplish something big in a team way. Carr’s resume certainly falls into that latter category.

This season, Carr became the third QB in NFL history to compile at least 3,000 passing yards in each of his first nine seasons. The others? Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson.

Why is one of these QBs not like the others? Well, both Manning and Wilson are also Super Bowl winners. Carr is not. In fact, in his NFL career, he’s only started one postseason game. It was last season against the Cincinnati Bengals, and Carr and the Raiders lost 26-19.

For all the stats he’s piled up, Carr has never led the league in any category. In his career he is showing a .444 winning percentage (63-79) as an NFL starting QB. By comparison, New England’s much-maligned Mac Jones is 16-15.

Looking through the history of the Patriots franchise during the Super Bowl era, there’s always been a preference within the organization to develop their own quarterbacks. For the most part, the Patriots take a pass on bringing in mercenary passers.

Sure, they tried it out a couple of years ago with Cam Newton, and let’s face it, that decision ultimately proved to be an unmitigated disaster. Eventually, the choice was made to cast the veteran Newton adrift and go with 2021 first-round pick Jones.

It was a move in keeping with the tradition of who New England likes under center. Since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, New England likes the offense to be in the hands of a home-grown signal caller. The Patriots rode Brady for two decades, and what a ride it was. He took over for Drew Bledsoe, who followed Tony Eason, who supplanted Steve Grogan, who was preceded by Jim Plunkett. Each and every one of them was drafted by the Patriots.

Every so often, another team’s castoff would slip under center for New England, but never for long. There was once even a former Raiders QB at the helm. Marc Wilson made 10 starts for the Patriots in 1989-90. He was 1-9.

Still, if the Patriots do decide that Jones isn’t the answer under center, it’s far more likely that they’ll draft another QB than sign a free agent or trade for one.

While it isn’t going to be the Patriots, some NFL team is going to give their offense that new Carr feel next season. But which team will it be?

The Indianapolis Colts are solid +275 favorites in this prop and that’s entirely understandable. Ever since Andrew Luck’s shock retirement on the eve of the 2019 season, the Colts have been giving a go to QBs cast adrift by other teams.

This season, it was Matt Ryan. Last season, Carson Wentz got his shot. Before him, it was Philip Rivers. They even gave ex-Patriots QB Jacoby Brissett a go. Carr to the Colts makes perfect sense.

It’s not going to be New England, but don’t rule out the AFC East as a destination for Carr. The New York Jets are in the QB market after determining that they’ll be moving on from Zach Wilson and are +400 to be Carr’s 2023 team. With one of the NFL’s best defenses, the Jets might just think they’re a veteran QB away from contending.

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