DeRosa sets a plan to win the handicapping championship

Back in my Brisnet days, I attended nine National Handicapping Championship events to service customers, and although qualifying for the NHC was never a focus of my horseplaying, it's nearly impossible not to have at least a little FOMO watching 600 people competing for millions in prizes.

Well, after qualifying at Hawthorne last year, I finally get my chance to be among them this week at the Horseshoe Casino in Las Vegas. And thanks to superstar horseplayers being very giving with their time, insight and experience, I already have a playbook on how to win the thing.

Simply put, there's no point handicapping every race available as if it were part of a carryover Pick 5 at Mahoning. The S-Q-3R method seems more apt for day 1 on Friday: survey, question, read, recite and review.

Survey: Which races appear to have vulnerable favorites?

Question: Using data, which races can we confidently say are worth our time to take a closer look? The race summary page included with Brisnet's Ultimate Past Performances is a fantastic tool to get a snapshot of a race and its competitiveness. Prime Power tells you how competitive the field is relative to each other top to bottom, and the pace date (Quirin Speed Points on a 0-8 scale and run-style designations) gives an immediate sense of potential for lone speed, duels, etc.

Read: Get to work! Handicap the races worth digging into.

Recite: This is the gridding process. Gridding is just a dumbed-down fair odds. But I'll compartmentalize my opinions into expected overlays and underlays, bad favorites, etc.

Review: This is similar to survey but now that the work is done, it's time to narrow even further into races I'm truly excited about and fully expecting to play and then identify backup races in case of scratches or misjuding price, etc.

Admittedly, my style of handicapping leans towards shorter prices. I love finding a horse with a 40 percent chance of winning who will be 2-to-1. Unfortunately, that is not a road to NHC riches.

The format of scoring based on $2 win-place payoffs of selections and the size of the field requires a focus on higher-priced horses. Thankfully, I have a couple tools at my disposal that I'm confident can point toward bigger prices when I don't like the favorite.

1. The Horse Racing Nation first-time start power ratings report. This report rates debut runners on a scale of 1-5. 5-star horses have won 27 percent since Feb. 1 for a +23.3 percent HRN Impact and +15 percent return on investment. Not that I'd be worried about them for NHC, but it is worth noting that 1-star horses are 3-for-176 (1.7 percent) with a -64.4 percent HRN Impact and -83 percent ROI.

2. Predicteform. These performance figures are based on Cary Fotias's Equi-form and include pattern analysis. These are useful because they identify performances that augur for what happens next (i.e. in the race I'm handicapping), so the emphasis is less on "here's how the horse ran" and more on "here's what how the horse ran means for how it might run today."

3. HRN Pro Reports. This is more in the "survey" category, but this suite of handicapping reports and data provides a snapshot of how tracks are playing in terms of, for example, post position and shipper reports, as well as potential "beyond the PPs" gems such as Sire Moves.

Of course, Brisnet ALLWAYS, Ed Tucker's Thoromanager and Len Ragozin's The Sheets all will be indispensable to me throughout the weekend, especially for the mandatory races.