Using History to Handicap the 2021 Preakness Stakes

The Preakness Stakes takes place on May 15 at Pimlico. Kentucky Derby takes places two weeks later at Churchill Downs.

The Kentucky Derby is dissected from every angle. The Preakness receives less attention from a "trends and angles" perspective. However, historical data is irrelevant in the Preaks.

The data shows that handicapping the 2021 Preakness Stakes is a good idea.

There are four of the last 12 Preakness winners that were within 3 1/2 lengths of a lead after the first half-mile. Only one horse in the past 12 years has rallied from the back half of its field to reach the winner's circle.

Horses exiting the Kentucky Derby have dominated the Preakness 16 times in the last 20 years. Rachel Alexandra and Swiss Skydiver won the Oaks. Bernardini and Cloud Computing are the only Preaks winners since 2001 who didn't prep in Derby or Oaks, as they came off a win in Withers Stakes at Aqueduct.

Bob Baffert has won the Preakness a record seven times. All of his Kentucky Derby winners came out of the race. The only one who didn't win the Kentucky derby was Authentic, who finished second by a neck in 2020.

Bernardini, Shackleford, Oxbow and Cloud Computing were all upset winners of the Preakness Stakes at odds between 12-1 and 15-2. Master Derby’s 23-5 surprise in 1975 is the record for a longshot winner.

18 of the last 20 Preakness winners had previously won a graded stakes. Shackleford and Cloud Computing were the only exceptions to the trend.

Medina Spirit won the Kentucky Derby. Midnight Bourbon and Keepmeinmind are also in the Preakness field. Bob Baffert's Concert Tour is a wildcard. He didn't contest the Derby, but he's a talented prospect. He won't be a longshot at Pimlico. His win at the Lecomte Stakes was a good omen.