Detroit Pistons vs. Miami Heat: NBA Odds, Prediction, Best Bets
A new era in Detroit Pistons basketball tips off Wednesday night in Miami. The NBA season opener is a matchup of teams on opposite sides of the NBA spectrum. The Heat look to return to the Finals for the third time since the 2019-2020 bubble season. While Detroit looks to build on their young talent in Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivy, James Wiseman, and 2023 5th overall pick Ausar Thompson.
FanDuel has the Pistons as steep underdogs at +330, which means your $100 bet would net you $330 if Detroit were to knock off the Heat in Game 1 of the NBA season.
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It’s important to note that the Over/Under odds are almost always listed at -110, as sportsbooks set it to the “vig” to account for a small profit for them on each bet. Once an NBA game begins, track the O/U for live betting, as it will ebb and flow based on the action on the court.
- Last season, the Pistons were 41-40-1 on the Totals (Over/Under betting odds)
- Detroit was 34-44-4 last season Against the Spread
Detroit has a new head coach with an impressive track record. Monty Williams also has the richest contract among NBA coaches. Only three seasons ago, Williams led the Suns to the NBA Finals. Two seasons ago, he guided Phoenix to a franchise record 64 wins.
When the Suns unceremoniously fired Williams following two disappointing playoff series losses the last two seasons, he became the most wanted man in the NBA. Detroit owner Tom Gores opened his vault and provided a huge contract to Williams.
Even before the first game, Williams had made an impact on the Pistons. In preseason, he’s shown no reluctance to sit or demote players who don’t fit his style of play. A style that hinges on defense.
Detroit will utilize this eight-man rotation (bold are probable starters):
- Cade Cunningham, PG
- Jaden Ivey, SG
- Ausar Thompson, SG
- Isaiah Stewart, C
- Jalen Duren, PF or C
- Killian Hayes, PG
- Alec Burks, SG
- Marcus Sasser, PG
- Joe Harris, SG
- Marvin Bagley III, C
34-year-old veteran forward Bojan Bogdanovic and backup point guard Monte Morris are both injured, and will not play against the Heat. It’s possible Williams will use Ivey off the bench, and use Burks or Harris as his starter. That’s because Ivey’s defense has been suspect ever since he entered the league.
Williams prefers a 10-man rotation, which he‘ll have once Bogdanovic and Morris are healthy. He has seven former first-round picks at his disposal. The Pistons have either a group of young players with bright futures, or too many one-dimensional basketballers.
For example, in their last two pre-season games, Detroit shot 26% from three-point range. Last year the team was in the bottom third in offensive efficiency and turnovers. The return of Cunningham should help some of that, but how many more games can Williams squeeze out of this team that barely needs to shave?
The Heat were the second-best defense in the NBA last season, which was the strength that lifted them into the NBA Finals. The offense ranked 26th out of 30 NBA teams in shooting accuracy. They make up for that a bit by rebounding, but Miami is far from a juggernaut. Most experts think they lucked out a bit against the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. Yet that defense is impressive, and should handle the Pistons well enough to win on Wednesday. Their big three of Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Bam Adebayo return to provide inside-out scoring options.
This three-leg parlay starts our NBA betting season. We have 81 more Best Bets to go, so let’s start off with a winner. Odds are from DraftKings at +1000:
- Miami Heat, Moneyline
- Bam Adebayo 12+ Rebounds
- Jalen Duren 12+ Rebounds
Duren had 12+ rebounds 17 times in 67 games last season… Adebayo recorded 12+ boards 19 times in 75 games in 2022-23… Miami was 2-1 vs. Detroit last season, losing its only home game in the series.
Miami’s defense and Jimmy Butler will be too much for the Pistons.
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