Diamondbacks vs Reds Odds and Picks (June 9)
The improving Cincinnati Reds (20-35, 12-15 home) appear to be solving the problem they’ve had with the Arizona Diamondbacks (26-31, 12-15 away).
Entering play Wednesday, the Reds were winners in the first two games of a four-game home set with the Diamondbacks. Prior to those two games, Arizona had won five in a row overall from Cincinnati and five of the previous seven games played at Cinci.
In general, even though they still rate as the worst team in the National League, the Reds are playing better baseball. Cincinnati was 8-5 straight up over the prior 13 games. Oddsmakers are buying into the new and improved Reds.
Diamondbacks vs Reds Odds
Odds as of June 8th at Caesars Sportsbook. See available Caesars promo codes.
It’s Cincinnati that’s set as the -140 home favorites in the fourth and final game of this set with Arizona. The Diamondbacks are 11-14 straight up as a road underdog this season.
First pitch at Great American Ballpark in this Thursday, June 9 game is set for 12:35 pm ET. The forecast is calling for cloudy skies, 9 mph wind and a temperature of 74 degrees.
At odds of -140, the Reds are offering an implied probability of victory of 58.33. A successful $10 wager on Cincinnati would be providing a return of $17.10.
The Reds may be the home team but in MLB betting trends, it’s the Diamondbacks getting the love. Public betting in both the moneyline and spread splits is supporting Arizona at 53%. The public is also backing the under at 53%.
As far as the NL Division odds are concerned, Cinci is +40000 to win the NL Central. You’ll get a betting line of +30000 on Arizona winning the NL West. The World Series odds show the Diamondbacks at +50000 and the Reds at +100000.
Arizona vs Cincinnati Probable Pitchers
Reds right-hander Tyler Mahle appears to be finding his footing following a dreadful start to 2022. Four of his last five starts registered as quality starts. In those last five starts he’s showing a 4.34 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. He’s struck out 32 while walking only 11 over the past 29 innings pitched.
Mahle shares the NL led with 12 games started. He led the league last season with 33 starts.
In six home starts, Mahle is 0-3 with a 5.60 ERA. In day games, Mahle is 13-18 with a 4.33 ERA.
He’s 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA in three career starts facing the Diamondbacks. In 50 career starts at Great American Ballpark, Mahle is 11-16 with a 5.16 ERA.
Davies vs Mahle
Diamondbacks right-hander Zach Davies has lost nine of his last 11 decisions going back to last season. He’s allowed 12 earned runs in his last 13 innings pitched. Over than span, Davies has surrendered five home runs.
Among MLB pitchers, Davies rates in the top 6% in exit velocity (85.3) and in the top 9% of hard-hit percentage (29.6). He’s 1-2 with a 5.13 ERA in five road starts. Davies is 23-18 with a 4.01 ERA in day games.
Against the Reds, Davies is 3-5 with a 4.41 ERA in 16 career starts. At Great American Ballpark, he’s 0-1 with a 2.36 ERA in five starts.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
Reds slugger Joey Votto is 12-for-32 (.375) with two homers and three RBI when facing Davies. Kyle Farmer is batting .400 (2-for-5).
Arizona’s Ketel Marte is 2-for-2 (1.000) with a homer and three RBI off of Mahle. David Peralta is 1-for-3 (.333).
Diamondbacks vs Reds Prediction
Arizona has proven to be a good road play on the runline this season, going 17-10 against the spread. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is a solid home over play, going 18-9 on the total in home games.
As for the game itself, while Mahle appears to be finding a rhythm, Davies looks to be completely out of tune. He has pitched well against Cinci in the past but Arizona was 1-4 SU in the past five games. Considering that they were playing the Pirates and the Reds, that’s not good news.
Pick: Cincinnati Reds ML (-140)
