Cubs vs Diamondbacks Odds, Picks, & Predictions

Covers

15 September 2023

The Cubs need every win they can get to keep their heads above water in the postseason chase, but they can take solace in the fact that NL Cy Young contender Justin Steele toes the rubber for them. Our MLB betting picks will roll with Chicago here.

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As the Cubs continue to fight for a spot in the postseason, a new foe will stand in their way in the form of the Arizona Diamondbacks. With their ace on the hill, can Chicago secure a victory as road favorites in the MLB odds to begin this series?

Let’s break down Cubs vs. Diamondbacks in our free MLB picks and predictions for September 15.

Cubs vs Diamondbacks odds

Cubs vs Diamondbacks predictions

There’s really very little to dislike about Justin Steele. The left-hander is one of the best in the game when it comes to pitching run value, and next to his excellent 2.49 ERA are some solid peripherals like a 3.41 xERA and a low 5.3% barrel rate.

Steele’s ability to limit walks to the tune of a 5.1% rate has led to much success, and it’s helped him deal with two tough months when it came to pitching to contact. After putting up a .281 xBA in July and a .268 xBA in August — his two worst months of the season by a long stretch — he’s come out in September with a .222 xBA, which would be his second-best month.

With all that said, the Diamondbacks are in tough shape at the moment with an 84 wRC+ over the last two weeks. While that’s not the only stat I’ll look at when evaluating an offense, their low .135 ISO and 8.5% walk rate are awfully concerning. Worst of all, they’re hitting just .231 with a high .278 BABIP, meaning you can’t chalk this up to bad luck.

I like the Cubs to win this game with Steele on the hill, and I’ve never been a particularly big fan of Brandon Pfaadt even with some improvements he’s made.

My best bet: Cubs moneyline (-135 at BetMGM)

Cubs vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay

Cubs moneyline

Ketel Marte To Record A Hit

Cody Bellinger 2+ Total Bases

The Cubs will get us started here with the same-gamer. They’re hitting the ball significantly better than Arizona over the last two weeks and have a leg-up in the pitching department. While I do think Arizona will be overpowered by Steele, I do like Ketel Marte to get a hit.

Marte has been one of the best on the team against left-handed pitching, batting .305 in 185 plate appearances this season. While there are some who do more damage when making contact, we’re just looking for a guy who will have a high probability of getting a hit, and that’s what we’ve got here.

Then, I like Cody Bellinger to stay hot at the dish and rack up two total bases or more. He’s hitting .316 over the last 14 days with a .614 slugging percentage, making an extra-base hit a very real possibility. He’s on a five-game hitting streak, during which he’s gone for two or more total bases three times.

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Cubs vs Diamondbacks moneyline and Over/Under analysis

I really need to see more before I can believe in Pfaadt 2.0. While he’s done some good since being brought up for the second time, his ERA has still been north of four runs since. He’s allowed seven runs in 9 2/3 innings this month, with one start coming against the lowly Rockies (away from Coors Field) and one against these same Cubs.

That has me really terrified to bet the total in this game. With a number of 8.5, it’s pretty clear that oddsmakers have no idea what to expect either. Pfaadt could blow up and make the Under a terrible bet, but if he’s just able to give Arizona six innings of four-run ball, Steele could shove and help cash the Under.

I’d ultimately side with the Under, considering I love Steele against a slumping Diamondbacks team which hasn’t hit left-handed pitching well this year. With that said, just taking the team with the stronger pitcher and offense is the way to go.

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Trend to know

The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 85 games (+13.30 Units / 12% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Diamondbacks

Cubs vs Diamondbacks game info

Starting pitchers

Justin Steele (16-3, 2.49 ERA): The lefty has allowed just one run in two starts since the calendar turned to September, with 18 strikeouts along the way. His last start was a win over these same Diamondbacks, which saw him spin seven shutout innings.

Brandon Pfaadt (1-8, 6.25 ERA): The rookie right-hander posted a 4.01 ERA in the month of August, which was technically an improvement, but he seemed to erase all progress with seven earned runs in his first 9 2/3 innings in September.