Dodgers-Diamondbacks NLDS Game 1 preview: Pitching matchups, odds, x-factor, analysis
Here’s the thing about interdivisional matchups: They have strong, strong potential for nonsense. The Diamondbacks and Dodgers played only 13 games this season, down from the 19 games they used to play every season, but they know each other. Oh, how they know each other. That knowledge will lead to nonsense. All knowledge leads to nonsense. Hey, put that on a throw pillow, and I’ll set up an Etsy account.
I don’t want to speak for the Dodgers, but they’d rather face the Marlins right now. They might even prefer to face the Braves in a best-of-five series instead of the Diamondbacks. Intra-divisional nonsense is what lies under the bed of the best teams at night.
Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks are thinking they have a chance, but they’re also looking at the Dodgers’ lineup and saying, “Good gravy, that is one talented lineup. We should probably try to stop them from hitting dingers.” They’re not as concerned with nonsense. They’re thinking about baseball stuff because the Dodgers are an all-time collection of mashers.
Also, you’d better believe that I’m going to repurpose this intro for the Phillies-Braves series. It’s basically the same (very fun) thing.
NLDS Game 1: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Start time: 9:20 p.m. ET on TBS
Pitching matchup: Merrill Kelly vs. Clayton Kershaw
(edited)
Game 1 pitching matchup
Diamondbacks: RHP Merrill Kelly2023 stats: 12-8, 3.29 ERA, 177 2/3 innings, 187 strikeouts, 1.19 WHIP
The Diamondbacks are back in the postseason just a couple of seasons after losing one billion games for a lot of reasons. They have Corbin Carroll, who’s a wonder. They’ve developed well and made sneaky-good trades on several occasions.
Kelly might represent their masterstroke, though. Where other teams might have seen a major-league washout who was never going to be more than a seventh starter or swingman, the Diamondbacks saw a pitcher’s pitcher who just happened to have deep Arizona roots.
He also looks like Chris Elliott, which is weird, because Zac Gallen looks like Kyle Mooney. My advice for the Diamondbacks is to get a starting pitcher who looks like David Faustino or Bronson Pinchot and take this sucker all the way to the World Series next year if it doesn’t work out in 2023.
2023 stats: 13-5, 2.46 ERA, 131 2/3 innings, 137 strikeouts, 1.06 WHIP
This will be Kershaw’s first postseason start of his career, which is remarkable considering that:
Hold on, I was looking at the wrong column.
Okay, so this will be Kershaw’s 32nd postseason start, which is absolutely wild. The guy has had an entire extra season on top of his 11-season career. If you’re a joyless scold, this is where you point out that he’s had his ups and downs in the postseason. It’s probably more helpful to point out that it’s amazing that he’s even here, pitching in a Game 1. His shoulder is fried, and you can see it in his late-season velocity readings. Yet he’s still effective and still getting outs.
He won’t be taking the ball into the eighth inning anymore, but that’s not his job. He’ll flummox for a few innings, then turn it over to the bullpen, while counting on the lineup to score a bunch of runs. It’s a template that’s worked so far; it’s why the Dodgers are 17-7 in his starts this season.
Game 1 X-factor
Corbin Carroll vs. Clayton Kershaw
The Diamondbacks are here because they have a proto-Mike Trout. Don’t scoff at that comparison, even if it’s a little unfair to compare anyone to a young Trout. Carroll is good enough to risk the hyperbole, though. He does everything well.
Kind of. He’s still not great against left-handed pitching, at least when it comes to his overall numbers.
He’s 4-for-7 with two homers off Kershaw, though. If that sounds special, that’s because it is. He’s already tied for 16th on the all-time leaderboard for homers against Kershaw.
The Diamondbacks have gotten this far because they’re relying heavily on a player who’s barely into his 20s. Now they’ll need him to do a little more, if at all possible.
Notable Quotable
“The last five, six years there’s always been some injuries that he’s had to deal with, but never took away from his desire to get back and help us, which he’s done.
I just marvel sometimes with what he has to work with and the success that he still continues to have. This is, right now, is as good as he’s been for the last couple of months. So I’m excited for him.”
— Dave Roberts on Clayton Kershaw.
