Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Prediction, Picks, Odds

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29 August 2023

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Prediction, Picks, Odds

The Los Angeles Dodgers dominated Arizona in Monday's affair and will look to shut down the offense once again with Clayton Kershaw taking the mound. Our MLB picks love L.A.'s chances in this match and expect another beatdown.

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The red-hot Los Angeles Dodgers have won five out of their last six and enter Tuesday fresh off a dominating performance against their NL West foes, the Arizona Diamondbacks. Now, L.A. can continue to keep the good times rolling by securing yet another series win with its longtime ace on the hill.

Join me as I break down the MLB odds for Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers and bring you my favorite MLB picks and predictions for Tuesday's matchup.

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers odds

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers predictions

The Arizona Diamondbacks haven’t struggled a ton on offense, but one area where they certainly haven’t been at their best is against lefties. Arizona is just 23rd in wRC+ when it comes to hitting southpaws, and that’s a pretty disheartening number when you consider it owns a .290 BABIP and just a 20.2% strikeout rate in that regard.

Clayton Kershaw may not be the elite pitcher he was last season, but he’s still pretty darn good. While many will scoff at his 3.56 xERA, his strikeout rate remains great at 27.1%. Although his .230 xBA is the worst mark he’s had there since 2019, it’s still a good number. Kershaw is striking guys out and his defense behind him has been great, making the expected stats a bit easier to deal with.

I love the home team here. Why? It's simple, Merrill Kelly is pitching against the Los Angeles Dodgers. His ERA against L.A. is worse than five runs and last season it was up over eight runs in five starts. There’s nothing to suggest the Dodgers are slowing down with a 117 wRC+ in the last two weeks and I think we should really see Kelly struggle in a matchup that has never been kind to him.

My best bet: Dodgers -1.5 (+114 at DraftKings)

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers same-game parlay

Dodgers -1.5

Walker 2+ TB

Kelly 5+ hits allowed

The Dodgers are one of my favorite plays of the day, and while you might want to throw a little safer leg in the parlay in the form of the moneyline, I’m a big enough believer here to take them on the spread — even in a SGP.

Arizona may be averse to hitting lefties, but Christian Walker is one of the few who doesn’t fit that mold. He owns a .616 slugging percentage against southpaws in 130 plate appearances with a spicy .268 average. I love him to go for an extra-base hit — or even two hits — against Kershaw given the fact that he’s been slightly less than dominant this year, even if I do believe he can win this start.

Finally, Merrill Kelly allowed six hits against the Dodgers earlier this month, and historically has been awful against this team. He’s allowed five hits in five of his last six starts, so I think this is another very safe leg to include. L.A. may be patient, but this team can definitely hit.

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Diamondbacks vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

I don’t think Kelly is the worst pitcher in the world, and with an ERA under three runs over the course of 136 1/3 innings that certainly can’t be the case. What I’m really concerned about here is that Kelly owns an 8.8% walk rate, which is going to make outs nearly impossible to come by against one of the most patient teams in baseball.

Furthermore, Kelly has been giving up hits left and right with a .388 xOBA on contact. It’s a very dangerous spot to play the Under given the real possibility that the right hander will blow up here against arguably the toughest offense to pitch against other than the Braves.

I would lean towards the Over here. Arizona’s been better at the plate over the last month or so, even if it has struggled to hit southpaws. With that said, 71% of the bets but just 57% of the money are on the Over at DraftKings.

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Trend to know

The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the game total Over in 65 of their last 110 games (+20.75 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers game info

Starting pitchers

Merrill Kelly (10-5, 2.97 ERA): Kelly owns a sparkling 2.08 ERA in the month of August, and he’s coming off his best start of the season which saw him throw seven shutout innings against the Reds. He allowed just one hit and struck out 12.

Clayton Kershaw (11-4, 2.52 ERA): The lefty was yanked after just two innings in his last start as the Dodgers continue to take it easy with their aging ace. He still owns a 2.25 ERA this month with 10 strikeouts in 12 innings and has allowed just nine baserunners.