Cardinals vs. Dodgers prediction and odds for Sunday, April 30 (Why OVER is best bet)
The Dodgers look to complete a series sweep of the slumping Cardinals on Sunday afternoon in Los Angeles.
LA is only 15-13 on the year, below its lofty expectations, but the team can hand a spiraling Cardinals, who sit at 10-18 on the year, another loss and push a preseason NL contender further down the standings.
The Dodgers will hope that Noah Syndergaard can find his footing with LA after a poor start to the year, but he faces an elite Cardinals lineup. Meanwhile, St. Louis hands the ball to Jake Woodford in hopes that he can get on track in his first full season as a starter with the big league club.
Here are the odds for the series finale:
Both pitchers are a mess to start the year. We'll start with Syndergaard, who is not getting into good graces with the Dodgers faithful with an ERA above 6.00 this season. He will face a Cardinals team that is top 10 in most hitting metrics, including wRC+ and on-base percentage.
Further, Syndergaard won't get much help from the bullpen. The Dodgers are bottom five so far this season in bullpen ERA. Against a vaunted Cardinals lineup, this pitching staff is going to wilt against the pressure.
However, count on the Dodgers lineup to fight back.
The team isn't hitting at an elite level just yet, 27th in the bigs in batting average, but they walk at the highest rate in baseball. This is going to be a problem for Woodford, who has looming regression on the mound despite pitching to a 5.47 ERA in five starts. The converted reliever has a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 6.85, meaning that he has been somewhat lucky when the ball is put into play despite the poor marks already.
Against a Dodgers team that is elite at getting on base and opportunistic once there, I believe runs should be flowing against Woodford and a league average bullpen.
I don't trust 'Thor' to overpower this elite lineup, but the Dodgers should be able to get its offense going against Woodford, leading me to the over on Sunday afternoon.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
