Dodgers vs. Cubs prediction, odds: how we’re factoring the weather report into our handicap
We have a Dodgers vs. Cubs prediction as Chicago looks to extend its winning streak to five games.
The Cubs are coming off a successful 5-1 West Coast road trip, with one of their series wins coming against the aforementioned Dodgers. Chicago’s only loss came in the middle game when Dodgers pinch-hitter David Peralta drove in two runs in the ninth inning to spoil Jameson Taillon’s bid for his first win.
Taillon will not only get another crack at the Dodgers in this series opener, but he’ll also be up against the same pitcher, Michael Grove.
However, the conditions will undoubtedly be different from his experience in Los Angeles as our Action Weather Report highlights there could be some precipitation with wind gusts up to 14 mph blowing out in Wrigley Field.
Those conditions could be particularly problematic for Taillon, given that he’s been much more of a fly-ball pitcher over the past three seasons.
Moneyline: LAD (+105) vs. CHC (-120)
Spread: LAD -1.5 (-170) vs. CHC -1.5 (+140)
Total: Over 11 (+100) | Under 11 (-120)
Dodgers ML +105
Dodgers — Michael Grove (0-1, 9.00 ERA) vs. Cubs — Jameson Taillon (0-2, 4.50 ERA)
Any team heading into a series in Oakland will likely take advantage of the opportunity to pad their stats. The Cubs did just that as they scored 26 runs over the three games.
Chicago’s pitching was just as potent, allowing only three runs during the series. Thus, before we view the Cubs returning home as conquering heroes, it’s important to know their results were similar to any team that’s faced the Athletics this season.
But to be fair, their three-game sweep in Oakland did come on the back of a series win over Los Angeles. The Dodgers are in unfamiliar territory, starting the season with a 9-10 mark.
However, despite their struggles, they trail the first-place Diamondbacks by only two games in the division.
This was a rare offseason in which Los Angeles didn’t finish atop the league in spending. According to Spotrac, the Dodgers ranked 16th in this category with a net spend of $113.3 million.
And although we’ve seen the Dodgers shed some payroll, they’re still ranked fifth with $226.9 million going to their players. Thus. While this Dodgers should probably be better than their record shows, I think it’s fair to acknowledge that they might not have the same stranglehold over the National League we’ve seen in recent years.
The Cubs are certainly one of the teams that loosened the purse strings in the offseason, ranking fifth in total spending with $338.2 million. Taillon was one of their additions after signing a four-year deal worth $68 million.
He’s probably been unlucky not to have a recorded win this season. While he’s 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA, his advanced numbers point to positive regression, as evidenced by a 2.79 xERA and 1.89 FIP.
If not for the weather, I probably would’ve considered backing Taillon in this spot more aggressively. However, his GB/FB ratio is down to 0.70 this season, and although he’s yet to surrender a home run, he looks well overdue.
According to Baseball Savant, in 72 plate appearances, this current Dodgers roster is hitting .313 against Taillon with a .353 wOBA and an average launch angle of 16.3 degrees. In contrast, the Cubs roster is hitting .111 with a .217 wOBA and an average launch angle of 10.4 degrees against Grove.
It’s worth noting that the Cubs have not only lost Taillon’s past three starts, but his teams have yet to record a win against the Dodgers in any of his past three starts when facing them.
As much as I’d like to side with Taillon, I’ll trust the numbers here and ride with the Dodgers on this rare occasion with them as underdogs.
