Dodgers vs Cubs Prediction, Picks, Odds

Covers

20 April 2023

The Dodgers' potent lineup won't stay dormant forever, and with hitter-friendly conditions and Jameson Taillon on the mound for the Cubs, our MLB picks think tonight could be the wake-up call.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (9-10) continue to struggle and have now lost three of their last four and eight of their last 12. Two of those losses came at the hands of the Chicago Cubs (11-6) last week, who are winners of four in a row and 10 of their last 13. Can the Dodgers turn things around, or will Chicago keep the wins coming?

MLB picks and predictions for the Dodgers vs. Cubs matchup on Thursday, April 20th.

Dodgers vs Cubs odds

Dodgers vs Cubs predictions

Things looked to be business as usual at the start of the season for the Dodgers after they surged out to a 5-2 record in the opening week. Since then, things have taken a turn for the absolute worst, and after losing eight of their last 12, they sit at 9-10, and a loss on Thursday night would mark their first sub-.500 start through the first 20 games of a season since 2017.

And tonight, they open a four-game set with the Chicago Cubs, who have delightfully surprised many with their 11-6 start to the season. The Cubs have won four in a row and 10 of their last 13, which included two wins in last week's three-game series in Los Angeles.

The Cubs outscored the Dodgers 13-6 over the course of those three games, and their bats have remained hot. They tallied another 26 runs across their fresh three-game sweep over the A's earlier this week, and they now rank third in runs per game (5.82) on the young season.

On the season, they rank second in batting average, third in on-base percentage, and sixth in slugging. They also have swiped 22 stolen bases (third), and their team-wide wRC+ of 115 ranks fourth in the MLB. For all intents and purposes, it has been a very complete and well-rounded offensive performance thus far.

Their pitching has been just as good, having now not allowed more than two runs in six straight games. Their team ERA of 3.07 ranks fifth; their 9.73 strikeouts per nine ranks fourth, and their home runs allowed per nine also ranks fourth.

Jameson Taillon will take the mound for the Cubbies on Thursday, and is still looking for his first win. He had a shutout five-inning performance last week against the Dodgers in which he allowed just two hits and two walks while striking out seven, but it was the lone game as of late where the Cubs' bats weren't able to provide support.

These Dodgers have accumulated 72 plate appearances against Taillon, and despite the last outing, they've had pretty good numbers against the righty. Cumulatively, they have racked up a .313 average and the likes of Freddie Freeman (.286 BA), Chris Taylor (.667 BA), and even former Cub Jayson Heyward (.381 BA in 23 PAs) have all had their fair share of success against him.

My best bet: Dodgers moneyline (+105 at WynnBET)

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Dodgers vs Cubs moneyline analysis

Michael Grove will take the mound for Los Angeles, and he has had some mixed results. In his first two appearances, he allowed 14 hits and 12 earned runs across 7.1 innings. His last outing was coincidentally the same game as Taillon's, during which Grove allowed just two hits and one earned run across 5.2 innings of work while notching six strikeouts.

Grove is likely better than his surface-level stats may suggest (5.95 ERA through his first 10 major league appearances), as he fares respectably well in hard-hit percentage (71st percentile) and barrel rate (68th) this year despite the slew of runs he has allowed.

The bullpen behind him is also more capable than their collective 24th-ranked ERA of 5.01. They've maintained a fifth-ranked walk rate of 7.5% and although they've allowed a league-high batting average of .295, it comes as a result of the second-highest batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which is a prime metric that indicates regression to the mean.

Coincidentally, the Cubs possess the second-best BABIP on the offensive side of the ball, so their run production is more likely to regress quite a bit than not. In fact, the Cubs led the league in BABIP through April of last year and ended up finishing 19th in batting average by season-end.

Dodgers vs Cubs Over/Under analysis

The total opened at a whopping 10.5 and it has since moved to 11 at most books.

The Dodgers have gone an even 9-9-1 on totals this year, but have gone 4-2-1 to the Over on the road. They have gone Under in four of the last five, largely due to their own inability to score runs.

The Cubs have gone 9-8 to the Over this year, but 5-4 to the Under in Wrigley Field.

Tonight's total is a reflection of Taillon's shaky track record (especially against these Dodgers in particular) and Grove's inexperience and high run allowance in his short time in the majors — but it’s also more of a reflection of tonight's conditions.

The wind is expected to blow 19 MPH out to left-center, and the humidity is respectably high (projected to be 70%). The temperature (mid-60s) is also not overly prohibitive either.

Dodgers vs Cubs game info

Dodgers vs Cubs betting preview

Starting pitchers

Michael Grove (0-1, 9.00 ERA): Grove is a second-year pitcher who has had his jump to the majors accelerated due to untimely injuries. In 10 appearances thus far, he has racked up a 5.95 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, but has shown flashes at times much like in his last appearance — a 5.2 inning outing coincidentally against the Cubs in which he allowed just one earned run.

Jameson Taillon (0-2, 4.50 ERA): Taillon joined the Cubs this past offseason after two serviceable years with the Yankees. The now 31-year-old has largely been a middle to end-of-rotation arm in his seven years in the majors, and has been unable to recreate some of his early seasons with the Pirates (3.38 ERA in 2016, 3.20 ERA in 2018). Taillon's last outing was against the Dodgers, in which he allowed no runs and just two hits and two walks in five innings.