Dodgers vs Red Sox Prediction, Picks, Odds

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27 August 2023

Dodgers vs Red Sox Prediction, Picks, Odds

Mookie Betts has been at the forefront of a red-hot Dodgers squad and with a favorable pitching matchup, our MLB betting picks expect the superstar to once again thrive in today's finale — read more below.

After splitting the first two games in a three-game interleague series, the Los Angeles Dodgers are back at Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox for the finale on Sunday.

With the Dodgers just five games back of the Braves as the top seed in the NL, and the BoSox fighting tooth and nail in the AL Wild Card race, where they sit 4.5 games back of the third spot, the offensive explosion should continue after 24 runs combined in the first two games.

Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Red Sox on Sunday, August 27.

Dodgers vs Red Sox odds

Dodgers vs Red Sox predictions

In August, the Los Angeles Dodgers are 20-4 and crushing anyone in their path thanks in part to the play of seven-time All-Star Mookie Betts. This month, Betts has been clobbering the ball with 42 hits (.456 average), 22 RBIs, 10 doubles, and seven home runs.

On Sunday afternoon, Betts should have himself a field day with the pitcher matchup —— slated to take the mound for the Boston Red Sox is righty Tanner Houck. With a five-pitch arsenal, Houck is in a position to not only give up hits to the 2018 AL MVP but also get hit hard.

His go-to pitches are his slider (35.2% of the time in 2023) and sinker (27%) followed by his cutter (15.4%), split-finger (11.3%), and fastball (11%).

Luckily for bettors wanting to ride the Mookie wave, Betts has been hitting all five of those pitches well this season.

When facing sliders in 2023, the Evil Empire of the West’s second baseman is cranking with a .333 average, .698 slugging percentage, and 12 run value. And fear not, those numbers stay hot against the sinker too (.359 average, .620 slugging percentage, 12 run value).

The only pitch that gives Betts “trouble" is the cutter, but he’s still hitting .277 with a .447 slugging percentage off of them this season. In 2022, he had a .595 slugging percentage off cutters and in 2021 it was .741 with a .407 batting average; it’s not like he hasn’t had significant success against them in the past.

Even when Houck tries one of the other two pitches in his repertoire, Betts can mash... he’s batting .333 against splitters and .326 with a .660 slugging percentage against fastballs in 2023.

Against the Sox relief pitchers who could take the field on Sunday, the most likely additional pitch he’ll see is the curveball and he’s hitting .400 against them with a .800 slugging percentage this season.

My best bet: Mookie Betts Over 1.5 hits (+155)

Dodgers vs Red Sox same-game parlay

Mookie Betts to record a hit (-370)

Freddie Freeman to record a hit (-525)

Over 10.5 (+115)

Dodgers ML (-120)

Like Betts, it doesn’t look like the 33-year-old Freddie Freeman will be slowing down anytime soon. The seven-time All-Star currently sits second in MLB in batting average (.339) and has been on a tear in August.

This month he’s racked up 36 hits, 13 doubles, and 13 RBIs in 24 games, and like Betts, he has a nice matchup with Houck.

Against Houck’s top three pitches, Freeman is batting .274 with a .630 slugging percentage (slider), .321 with a .513 slugging percentage (sinker), and .340 with a .460 slugging percentage (cutter).

Between the two of them, they should be hitting Houck hard and helping L.A. score plenty of runs. The Dodgers have cashed the Over in 62 of their last 107 games (+17.75 units / 15% ROI).

Since the return from the All-Star break, the Blue Crew are 28-11 and have scored at least six runs 19 times while going Over a game total of 10 runs 17 times.

The Sox should hold up their end of the bargain with the total, too. They’ve gone Over the total in their last 10 games (+10.05 units / 91% ROI).

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Dodgers vs Red Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis

After taking Game 1 of the series 7-4 as between -120 and -134 road favorites, the Dodgers dropped Game 2 to the Red Sox 8-5 as -120 to -165 favorites; both games cleared the 9.5-to-10.5 total.

For the final game in the series, L.A. is sitting at -120 to -125 pretty much everywhere with little line movement. Given their dominance in August, it should come as no surprise.

With both teams topping the Over as of late, this one opened at 9.5 and hasn’t seen much movement, though some books are offering the Under at +100.

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Trend to know

The Dodgers have cashed the moneyline in 13 of their last 16 games (+8.40 units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Red Sox

Dodgers vs Red Sox game info

Starting pitchers

Caleb Ferguson (7-3, 2.81 ERA): The Dodgers plan to start with 27-year-old Caleb Ferguson on Sunday. The relief pitcher has had a strong season with 54 strikeouts and 15 earned runs in 48 innings of work. He struggled some in August, appearing in nine games and going 7 2/3 innings with five strikeouts, 14 hits, and four earned runs. Rookie Gavin Stone is expected to see heavy action following Ferguson. The 24-year-old has pitched just 12 innings this season giving up 17 earned runs (he has a 12.75 ERA in four games).

Tanner Houck (3-7, 5.08 ERA): The 27-year-old Houck showed flashes as a starter in 2021 and came out of the bullpen in 2022, but has struggled with consistency this season. After a facial fracture in June, Houck made his return on August 22 against the Astros, giving up three earned runs with three walks and just two strikeouts in five innings of work. Pre-injury, he wasn’t fairing all that well either. In 72 2/3 innings this season, he’s given up 66 hits, 41 earned runs, and 10 home runs with 66 strikeouts.