Dolphins vs. Chiefs NFL Player Props, Odds: Predictions for Wild Card Weekend
Our Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL player props for Saturday's Wild Card matchup based on the best NFL odds decipher how much mother nature will impact individual production this weekend.
The Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) will begin their championship defense by hosting the Miami Dolphins (11-6) in Saturday's Wild Card Weekend matchup. Anyone expecting a high-scoring affair is in for a rude awakening, however, with the latest forecast projecting a temperature in the single digits (at best) with a chance of snow for much of the week.
From a betting perspective, the onus is on bettors to decide how much offensive production we should expect based on how oddsmakers have adjusted the lines due to the weather. In a much-anticipated playoff matchup broadcast exclusively on Peacock, who will punch their ticket to the Divisional Round of the AFC Playoffs?
To go along with our Dolphins vs. Chiefs prediction and the rest of our NFL Wild Card Weekend picks, here are our best Dolphins vs. Chiefs NFL player props for Saturday (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Dolphins vs. Chiefs NFL player props: Wild Card Weekend
Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 interceptions (-122 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa will always be scrutinized as long as he continues to have such distinct splits. When things are going well and Tua has time, he's an engineer behind one of the best offenses in football. When teams can get to him with pressure, Tagovailoa struggles a bit more than most.
According to PFF, Tagovailoa has a passer rating of 112.5 when kept clean, which led to him posting the best passing grade in the league this year. But his passing rating plummets to 57.5 when under pressure. He is also third among quarterbacks in the postseason in total turnover-worthy plays.
Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best in the business at drawing up creative blitzes during the playoffs. I think that will keep Tua off balance enough to lead to one errant pass. He is -122 to throw an interception at BetRivers, while the rest of our best sports betting apps are charging at least -130 for the same wager.
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Patrick Mahomes Under 28.5 rushing yards (-103 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
On some level, I get why the market has pushed Patrick Mahomes' rushing yards prop up to this point after opening at 21.5. It is a playoff game, and the best players will do whatever it takes to win. For Mahomes, that has often meant scrambling for a first down rather than trusting his shaky group of receivers.
But I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that Mahomes cleared this rushing mark in only seven of his 16 regular-season games, a resume that includes 24 yards on six rushing attempts during a 21-14 win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 9. While Mahomes' playoff runs have often been memorable, it's worth noting that he's just 7-7 to this rushing prop in the postseason.
The Dolphins are dealing with plenty of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, particularly after losing edge rusher Bradley Chubb. They likely don't have a pass rush that forces Mahomes to take matters into his own hands on a frigid night in Kansas City. We simply think the market has moved this line too far.
Mecole Hardman Under 15.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
The market has pushed Mecole Hardman's receiving prop up to 15.5, despite our Andrew Brennan making a compelling case for Under 10.5 receiving yards in his Dolphins vs. Chiefs prediction earlier this week. Once again, we are fading a potential overreaction by bettors.
Hardman exploded for 77 yards on six catches in a Week 18 performance against the Los Angeles Chargers, though many key starters were out for the Chiefs. It's easy to forget that Hardman logged just five snaps in Week 17, and had single-digit passing snaps in three of his first five games with Kansas City after re-joining the team midseason.
Mahomes might have trust issues with his receivers by now, but I have a difficult time believing he thinks Hardman is the answer in the postseason. With a projection closer to the original line, we would take this current Under at -120 or better.
Dolphins-Chiefs player props made Thursday at 3:05 p.m. ET.
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