Duke Blue Devils vs Florida State Seminoles Prediction, Odds and Picks

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Point Spread Pick

When the 2023 schedule came out, odds are quite low that anyone circled “Duke at Florida State” as a key ACC showdown. But once the Blue Devils knocked off Clemson in the opening week of the season and announced their presence as a legitimate force in football, this game has looked more promising by the week. These are 2 of the 3 undefeated teams in the conference, and in a league that no longer has divisions, both of these teams could find their way to the conference title game regardless of Saturday’s result. How will this game go? I do not, by any means, anticipate a Duke win here, but I do believe they are a pesky enough team to keep this one under two touchdowns.

The biggest question mark in this one is the health of Duke quarterback Riley Leonard. The steady leader is questionable with an ankle injury, but there is hope that he plays. I am working with the assumption that Leonard plays and is close to 100%, and if he is, then I think this is something like a 10-point game. If Leonard is ruled out, I would play it the other way and anticipate a Seminole blowout. Beyond the QB question, much is being made of the Duke defense. They are ranked 8th in passing yards allowed, but you can guarantee that that ranking will slide some after this week. Simply put, they haven’t faced an offense like this one, and I just don’t believe this Duke defense is that elite until I see them do it against top-caliber receivers like they will see this weekend. Florida State is going to score. If Leonard is healthy, I think the Blue Devils can score enough to keep the game interesting; without Leonard, I think the defense will be on the field way too much for Duke and they will be overwhelmed. For now, I am keeping this as a 1-star pick because of that uncertainty. If Leonard plays, I like this pick a lot more.

Duke +14.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing; playable at that number

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Game Totals Pick

How you play the game total in this one is very much correlated to how you think the spread will go. Once again, we are dealing with a question mark when it comes to the Duke quarterback. I am assuming Riley Leonard plays. If he does, and if this game is basically both teams playing at their best, I love the over in this game. I think Florida State will score plenty, exposing a Duke defense whose numbers are inflated by a mostly-soft schedule thus far. I think they will get gashed by one of the best receiving tandems in the country. I also think that forces Duke to push more aggressively on offense to keep pace, and that would send us over.

If Leonard does not play, I still like the under, but just not at much. Without Leonard, I still think the Blue Devils will find paydirt a couple of times—Florida State has given up at least 17 points in 4 of their 5 games against Power 5 schools. But if the Duke offense is not able to sustain drives and eat the clock to shorten the game and take pressure off of their defense, Florida State could post 30+ points in this one. With Leonard playing, I think this is something like a 31-20 game; without him, I think this one gets lopsided, more like 38-13.

Over 49 (-110) available at the time of publishing; playable at that number

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A teacher and minister by training, a fantasy sports enthusiast and sports bettor by hobby. I live in the Great Smoky Mountains, and I especially love NCAAF, NFL, NCAAB and MLB. For Chad Hartsock media enquiries, please email [email protected].