Florida State football prediction, preview vs. Duke Blue Devils

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01 January 0001

Florida State football prediction, preview vs. Duke Blue Devils

Florida State football will have two questions to answer in this Saturday's matchup, as the program looks to keep up its unbeaten start to the season.

The first is will the No. 4 Seminoles (6-0, 4-0 ACC) face a healthy Riley Leonard for an impressive No. 17 Duke (5-1, 2-0) team. The second is whether the high-powered FSU offense is ready for arguably its toughest test of the season against an elite Blue Devils defense.

Kickoff is scheduled at 7:30 p.m. at Doak Campbell Stadium. It will be the sixth time in seven games FSU will have its game broadcast on ABC.

Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell has led FSU to 12 straight victories dating back to last season and the team enters as 14.5-point favorites over the Blue Devils, per Bet Online, betting sides, as of Thursday morning.

FSU leads the all-time series between the two teams 21-0 including a 56-35 victory in the last matchup between the two teams in 2020 in Tallahassee.

This iteration of the Blue Devils is different than any the Seminoles have faced in this series. Duke opened with an impressive 28-7 victory over Clemson. Its lone loss is a 21-14 close loss to Notre Dame. The Blue Devils also have wins over Lafayette (42-7), Northwestern (38-14), Connecticut (41-7) and NC State (24-3).

Here's a look at how each FSU and Duke can win, as well as a prediction for the game.

Why Florida State will win

While the Blue Devils have an impressive resume so far this season, they have only played one game on the road this season and this will be the best offense they face.

Wide receiver Johnny Wilson was back as a full participant at practice this week after missing last week's game against Syracuse. He and Keon Coleman form a duo that most other collegiate programs cannot prepare for with their combination of size and speed.

While Duke has already played Sam Hartman (Notre Dame) and Cade Klubnik (Clemson), Jordan Travis is easily the best quarterback it will have faced so far this season.

The Seminoles are 44th in the nation with 34 plays of 20 yards or more. A few of them will be needed this game, as the Blue Devils excel in the red zone and could cause FSU drives to stall out for field goals rather than TDs. Duke ranks as the second-best red zone defense nationally.

If Duke QB Riley Leonard plays - he is "day to day" - the Seminoles are going to need to figure out a way to slow down the signal caller. He excels as a duel-threat QB. He's 79-for-126 passing (62.7%) with 912 yards, three touchdowns and one interception.

Leonard is also the second-leading rusher with 47 attempts for 345 yards and four touchdowns.

Why Duke will win

The Blue Devils have yet to allow a team to score more than 21 points in a game this season. They are allowing just 9.8 points per game and 4.44 yards per play.

Duke has held opponents to 55% on pass completions, 4.9 yards per attempt, along with three touchdowns and five interceptions. In other words, the pass game needs to be at its best to have a chance. So, potentially this could be the team that finds a way to take Coleman and Wilson out of the game.

Step one will be getting pressure on Travis and step two will be to force a couple of turnovers to get short fields for its offense.

The Blue Devils have been more susceptible against the run, so they'll need to have a strong performance against the FSU offensive line - which has struggled in run blocking at times this season.

Offensively, Duke will lean on the run game. The Blue Devils rank 19th in the nation with 198.5 rushing yards per game, while the Seminoles rank 69th in the nation allowing 139.4 yards per game.

Keeping Travis and the FSU offense on the sidelines will be the best defense for an already impressive defense of Duke.

FSU vs. Duke prediction

Duke's defense is going to be as talented as any the Seminoles will see this season. Expect a defensive struggle throughout this one, especially in the first half. The halftime score will be 14-10 with the Blue Devils in the lead.

However, another solid second-half performance - limiting the Blue Devils to two field goals - will help the Seminoles overcome the small deficit.

Trey Benson will end up with 14 carries for 112 yards, while Lawrance Toafili added 80 yards and Rodney Hill also adds 50 yards as the Seminoles turn to the run game early and often.

Don't rule out Coleman making a couple of highlight plays and the return of Wilson will also boost the Seminoles in a close game.

Ehsan Kassim's prediction: Florida State 27, Duke 20

"Quote It": Mike Norvell vs. Mike Elko

Mike Norvell, FSU: "We're playing a really good football team. Duke has had a great year up to this point. They're one play away from being undefeated. You see just the mindset of how they play, what they do. It's impressive. Got a lot of respect for Coach Elko. Coach Johns, offensive coordinator, we've worked together. It's a very well-coached team with really good players."

Mike Elko, Duke: “Looking ahead to Florida State. They are an extremely talented football team. Ton of respect for the job that Mike Norvell has done down there. I think he has built a program, not just a team, but a program. You can see it with how those kids play and the energy and passion that they play the game with. Offensively, this is an extremely talented operation. It starts with the quarterback, Jordan Travis. He is playing at an elite level and really has been for the better part of two years now. He knows exactly what he wants to do in that system. He's managing it really well. You can see him have complete command of the offense not only as a quarterback but also as a leader. It's really impressive to see."