Duke vs. North Carolina prediction, odds, time: 2023 college basketball picks, March 4 bets by proven model

The Duke Blue Devils will look for their first regular-season sweep over the North Carolina Tar Heels in three years when they meet in an Atlantic Coast Conference matchup on Saturday. The Blue Devils (22-8, 13-6 ACC), who are just 3-6 on the road, have won two of their last three games at the Smith Center in Chapel Hill, N.C. The Tar Heels (19-11, 11-8), who are 12-2 on their home court, have won four of the last six meetings with Duke. The Blue Devils posted a 63-57 win over the Tar Heels on Feb. 4 at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, N.C..

The game will tip off at 6:30 p.m. ET. Duke is averaging 72.1 points per game, while North Carolina averages 77.1. The Tar Heels are 4.5-point favorites in the latest Duke vs. North Carolina odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is set at 143. Before making any North Carolina vs. Duke picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.  

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters Week 17 of the season 76-46 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning more than $1,600 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Duke vs. UNC and just locked in its picks and CBB predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college basketball odds and betting lines for UNC vs. Duke:

• Duke vs. North Carolina spread: North Carolina -4.5
• Duke vs. North Carolina over/under: 143 points
• Duke vs. North Carolina money line: Duke +152, North Carolina -180
• DUKE: The Blue Devils are 4-1 against the spread in their last five Saturday games
• UNC: The Under is 5-0 in the Tar Heels' last five games following an ATS win
• Duke vs. North Carolina picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why North Carolina can cover

Junior guard RJ Davis is one of four Tar Heels averaging in double-figure scoring. In 30 games this season, all starts, Davis is averaging 15.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.1 steals per game. He is also one of the best free-throw shooters on the team, hitting on 88.2% of his foul shots. Davis scored 19 points in Monday's win at Florida State, and had a double-double with 16 points and 10 rebounds in a 71-63 upset of No. 6 Virginia on Feb. 25.

Also helping power North Carolina is senior forward Pete Nance. Nance has been red hot of late, reaching double-digit scoring in each of his last three games, including a pair of double-doubles. In the win at Florida State, Nance scored 15 points, while grabbing 10 rebounds. In a 63-59 win at Notre Dame on Feb. 22, he scored 11 points, while grabbing 10 boards. He has five double-doubles on the season. The transfer from Northwestern has started all 27 games he has played, and is averaging 10.3 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists and one block per game.

Why Duke can cover

Freshman center Kyle Filipowski continues to impress. He is coming off his 13th double-double, scoring 11 points and grabbing 14 rebounds in the 71-67 win over North Carolina State on Tuesday. His best game may have been in a 77-69 win over Pittsburgh on Jan. 11. In that game, he scored 28 points and grabbed 15 rebounds. For the year, Filipowski is averaging 14.8 points, nine rebounds, 1.5 assists and 1.2 steals per game.

Also helping ignite the Blue Devils is junior guard Jeremy Roach. Roach is coming off a 20-point performance in Tuesday's win over North Carolina State, the fifth time he has reached 20 or more points this season. Roach had a monster game the last time out against the Tar Heels, scoring 20 points while grabbing seven rebounds. In 26 games, including 24 starts, he is averaging 13.2 points, 3.3 assists and 2.4 rebounds per game.

How to make UNC vs. Duke picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 142 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time. You can get the model's picks at SportsLine.