Eagles vs. Chiefs Odds, Picks and Injury Updates

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The 2022-23 NFL season culminates this evening with Super Bowl 57 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ, between the Philadelphia Eagles (16-3, 10-9 ATS) and Kansas City Chiefs (16-3, 7-11-1 ATS).

The Chiefs are looking for their third-ever Super Bowl title and second in the last four years. The Eagles have just one previous Super Bowl victory on their resume from 2018.

The betting line for the 2023 edition slightly favors the Eagles.

Eagles vs. Chiefs Odds for Super Bowl 57

There has been minimal movement in the odds since they opened two weeks ago. The initial line of Philadelphia -1 grew to -2 before settling in at -1.5, where it's remained for the better part of the past 14 days.

The game total opened at 49.5 and slowly grew to 50.5.

Is an offensive explosion in store?

The fact that the total has been on the rise is understandable. The Chiefs owned the highest-scoring offense in the regular season (29.2 PPG) while the Eagles were third and tops in the NFC (28.1 PPG).

Philadelphia's offense has been firing on all cylinders in the postseason, putting up 38 points against the Giants in the divisional round followed by 31 against the 49ers in the NFC Championship.

Bruised and battered, Kansas City's attack has been quieter in the playoffs, averaging just 25 points per game against the Jaguars and Bengals. NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes suffered a high-ankle sprain against Jacksonville in the divisional round and was severely limited by the injury in AFC title game against Cincinnati.

While bettors won't know whether Mahomes is truly at full health until they see him under pressure, head coach Andy Reid is confident his quarterback will be able to run the Kansas City offense in full.

No defense asks more of a QB than the Eagles and their top-ranked pass rush. Philadelphia racked up an NFL-best 70 sacks during the regular season, becoming the first team in a decade to surpass 60 and falling just two short of the single-season record set by the 1984 Chicago Bears. They've kept up that stellar play in the postseason, registering another eight sacks in two games.

Led by Hassan Reddick's 16 sacks, Philly's relentless pass rush helped the Eagles post the best defensive-efficiency rating against the pass during the regular season, according to Football Outsiders. They were considerably more vulnerable against the run, however, sitting just 17th out of the NFL's 32 teams on the ground. Altogether, Philadelphia's defense ranked sixth in Defensive DVOA.

Kansas City's defense rated considerably lower (17th overall) but was stronger against the run (14th) than the pass (17th), which means both defenses are built to counteract the other team's offensive strength. Philadelphia's offense was the top-ranked rushing attack in the NFL by a wide margin, while the same can be said of K.C.'s passing game.

How healthy are the Chiefs?

One of the factors that motivated the early Super Bowl line movement in Philadelphia's favor was significant injuries on the Kansas City side. By the end of the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs were without star defensive back L'Jarius Sneed, linebacker Willie Gay Jr., and receivers Kadarius Toney, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Mecole Hardman.

However, all were full participants in Kansas City's final practice of the week and none carry an injury designation heading into the Super Bowl.

The Eagles are similarly healthy. Only return man Britain Covey was on the team's final injury report of the week, listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. Devonta Smith is likely to take over punt-return duties if Covey is unable to play.

Best Bets for Eagles vs. Chiefs

While the movement in the betting line portends a high-scoring game, I am leaning to other way. As discussed, the defenses in question matchup relatively well with the offenses they'll be facing.

While Eagles QB Jalen Hurts took major strides as a passer this year - setting career-bests in completion percentage (66.5), yards (3,701), touchdowns (22), and interceptions (6) - Philadelphia still needs to be able to run the ball to be effective. The Eagles have averaged 208 rushing yards per game in the postseason and put up nearly 150 per game over the course of the regular season. Their potent run game, including Hurts' dual-threat ability, mandates defenses devote considerable resources in the box, making it significantly more difficult to cover the likes of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith on the outside.

But the Chiefs have been solid at stopping the run this season and completely shutdown the Cincinnati run game two weeks ago. The Bengals two-headed backfield of Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine only combined for 41 yards on 13 attempts (3.2 YPC). In a rarity, QB Joe Burrow finished the game as the team's leading rusher with 30 yards.

Even if the Eagles run game is finding success, it's an old NFL adage that running the ball "shortens the game". Second-year Eagles coach Nick Sirianni would love nothing more than to churn out first downs on the ground, sustain long, time-consuming drives, and keep Mahomes on the sideline.

On the opposite side, the Philadelphia pass rush is going to cause serious problems for the Kansas City offense, whether Mahomes has full mobility or not. The best way to counteract the Eagles pass rushers is to run the ball straight at them, and Andy Reid will be well-aware that the soft spot of this Eagles D is on the ground.

Expect a ground-heavy game script from both sides early on and a quick first half that stays under the total of 24.5.

The first-half under is favored at all sportsbooks and is as short as -120 at FanDuel, Caesars, and BetMGM, but bettors can still find a -115 price tag at DraftKings as of Sunday morning.

Pick: first half under 24.5 (-110)

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